Token Launches · resolved market
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345688ed64fd6f3195568d4efff01f5e8469dc61b8bc702e6948e875f41ca03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 6,377$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…fa90backed Yes | 63c | 4,959$3,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 44c | 2,999$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.62 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 11c | 1,980$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 14c | 1,558$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 44c | 1,515$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.7 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 67c | 1,513$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.96 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…b69abacked No | 42c | 1,363$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked No | 13c | 1,230$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,128$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 68c | 1,036$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.54 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 23c | 1,007$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…5e06backed No | 46c | 999.98$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 13c | 799.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…8150backed No | 25c | 770.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 746.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 29c | 745.84$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44e…dcfabacked Yes | 72c | 719.49$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 10c | 679$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 72c | 647$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 47c | 619.44$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 30c | 606.58$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 35c | 443.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.83 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…773dbacked Yes | 78c | 433.36$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b9…ad8fbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed No | 36c | 392.62$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 350.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…3c6ebacked No | 55c | 315.17$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed No | 70c | 310.81$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 64c | 284.69$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…442abacked Yes | 36c | 280$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 31c | 278.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 68c | 247.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed No | 20c | 247.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…a4c0backed No | 53c | 244.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 227.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 76c | 211.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Yes | 28c | 205.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 202.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 172.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 172.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 170.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Yes | 43c | 156.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…32a2backed No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90d8…885abacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 28c | 145.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf272…0c40backed Yes | 39c | 144.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed No | 14c | 143.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…d868backed No | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e9…e6c7backed No | 74c | 134.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…0141backed Yes | 79c | 130.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 57c | 129.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 54c | 125.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 12c | 124.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 16c | 124.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 24c | 113.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…8094backed Yes | 27c | 112.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…5114backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 36c | 99.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…b8b6backed No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 25c | 88.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed No | 23c | 86.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…fc6abacked Yes | 72c | 82.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked No | 35c | 70.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 35c | 68.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe023…61a6backed Yes | 29c | 61.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…46dcbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 22c | 49.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 73c | 47.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 63c | 41.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…9e1abacked Yes | 26c | 40.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…eb0bbacked Yes | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…593ebacked Yes | 71c | 36.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…720dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…ce2dbacked No | 43c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ff…1775backed Yes | 75c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 69c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019d…b393backed Yes | 60c | 27.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 70c | 26.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…e5b1backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed Yes | 79c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 75c | 21.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…1649backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…877bbacked Yes | 64c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- ETHGAS FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $900M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.