Token Launches · resolved market
ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8971170d70bf4694f546a3e028f4f32be639288f0a59f9f3d3b4ef0818c00c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,466$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.05 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…82fdbacked No | 60c | 1,840$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…fa90backed No | 73c | 1,538$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 26c | 1,123$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.04 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 630$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 500.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…632fbacked Yes | 12c | 462.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 37c | 391.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes | 17c | 359.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 345.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 43c | 234.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 222.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 33c | 212.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…442abacked Yes | 49c | 202.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 169.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…4200backed Yes | 12c | 167.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 64c | 156.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 16c | 128.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…d53ebacked No | 64c | 126.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 118.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed Yes | 27c | 110.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 107.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 44c | 106.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…41bebacked Yes | 37c | 93.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…062abacked No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 15c | 83.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…9294backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81f2backed Yes | 22c | 68.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 20c | 65.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…0141backed Yes | 35c | 39.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…b8b6backed No | 56c | 35.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked No | 70c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…5538backed No | 72c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…579fbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 71c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- ETHGAS FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $900M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.