Token Launches · resolved market
ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c3fb73a83477f8095b0d5bf05a1e36acc4c39cb3ea8fbe711683bdcc497654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 10c | 7,146$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.87 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…d9d0backed No | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,396$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed No | 4c | 2,326$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…2c83backed No | 1c | 2,269$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 7c | 1,728$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,619$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 17c | 1,420$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 73c | 1,282$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 28c | 1,117$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.27 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 17c | 988.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 16c | 920$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 910$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f0…5344backed No | 1c | 896.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 846.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…b8b6backed No | 6c | 839.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 806.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 781.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 26c | 769.79$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 80c | 736.17$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 68c | 565.05$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 4c | 531.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…d2a9backed No | 4c | 526.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 79c | 500$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 495.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8e…c5d7backed No | 3c | 473.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 3c | 419.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…9f2abacked No | 18c | 399.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…1b3cbacked No | 3c | 333.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed No | 4c | 325.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 13c | 322.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…d0e2backed No | 6c | 242.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 236.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…eb0bbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…5e06backed No | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e9…e6c7backed No | 24c | 195.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked No | 57c | 190.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…4a49backed No | 40c | 166.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 68c | 161$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 12c | 160.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes | 74c | 143.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…652ebacked No | 38c | 132.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…e150backed No | 52c | 95.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 16c | 91.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…8f95backed No | 14c | 82.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 75.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked No | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 24c | 61.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed No | 32c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…f531backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…63d8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed No | 48c | 47.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 45c | 45.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…0549backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 63c | 39.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe023…61a6backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ce…a1ccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5438…4d3dbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…6ad6backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Yes | 66c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…03f5backed Yes | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- ETHGAS FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- ETHGAS FDV above $900M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.