Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21150e7b9202a29973a4444e104192b0e73b08bbe6ef9aab4145fc3efe7215aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Aurora, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 8,001$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,453.13 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Aurora | 70c | 5,183$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,616.15 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 3,289$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.39 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Aurora | 72c | 2,453$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Aurora | 2c | 2,381$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…1128backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 1,795$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 1,521$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.05 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…fdd9backed Aurora | 17c | 1,504$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,409$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.8 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Aurora | 57c | 1,403$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.6 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 1,372$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 76c | 1,322$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Aurora | 64c | 1,301$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.4 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 74c | 1,120$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.45 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 66c | 1,002$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.25 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 880.65$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.47 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 57c | 875$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 19c | 776.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.69 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Aurora | 80c | 750.17$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.14 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Aurora | 56c | 702.86$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.31 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 68c | 700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 65c | 696$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.1 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 656.97$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.97 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8193backed Aurora | 69c | 655.52$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 618.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.03 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Aurora | 60c | 599.99$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.99 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 584.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.85 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 557.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.61 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 72c | 536.97$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd9…4c3cbacked Aurora | 62c | 525.85$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Aurora | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 60c | 499.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Aurora | 13c | 481.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Aurora | 62c | 454$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.48 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Aurora | 68c | 441.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 60c | 439.75$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.1 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked Aurora | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x803d…368bbacked Aurora | 65c | 397.46$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 376.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.36 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…995abacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 335.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…7486backed Aurora | 5c | 301.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Aurora | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Aurora | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…f4d5backed Aurora | 74c | 223.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…f2ffbacked Aurora | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Aurora | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Aurora | 57c | 189.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 177.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Aurora | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6477…1efcbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 164.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 65c | 159.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 156.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 145$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…2ef2backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 139.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 136.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Aurora | 62c | 129.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 124.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…8e24backed Aurora | 62c | 123.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 122.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora | 56c | 113.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Aurora | 62c | 113.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Aurora | 80c | 109.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Aurora | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…156bbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…953abacked Aurora | 63c | 99.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…aa13backed Aurora | 59c | 99.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…dc41backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 98.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 92.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 46c | 89.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 88.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 86.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…e0a3backed Aurora | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 84.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 72.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 66.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 61.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 52c | 61.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 65c | 53.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 52.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Aurora | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Aurora | 77c | 45.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Aurora | 72c | 43.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Aurora | 58c | 39.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 31.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…6aa2backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Aurora | 70c | 30.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.