Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3781f90282c9543363a9a95e2c00bb4029d022da63ba2677cf9e0c48297b2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Aurora, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ab…b5e3backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 12,601$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…25f3backed Aurora | 32c | 11,697$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 10,880$7,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.75 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Aurora | 29c | 10,118$2,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,941.81 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Aurora | 51c | 8,000$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,109.98 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Aurora | 41c | 7,921$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 31c | 7,049$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.42 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 6,573$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.69 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 5,439$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.3 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 57c | 4,995$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.01 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora | 53c | 4,906$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.53 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 4,777$2,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.32 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Aurora | 68c | 4,442$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 4,380$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora | 52c | 2,895$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.88 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 49c | 2,828$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.7 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,816$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.35 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,755$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.84 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…e30dbacked Aurora | 71c | 2,747$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 2,635$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,539$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.02 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 47c | 2,399$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.69 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 2,300$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.46 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 2,264$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.3 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.11 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 1,668$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.28 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 1,641$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.68 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Aurora | 50c | 1,625$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.54 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 1,618$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.73 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 1,536$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 66c | 1,509$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…2ccabacked Aurora | 52c | 1,390$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.66 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Aurora | 47c | 1,340$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.86 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,328$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.18 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Aurora | 30c | 1,327$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Aurora | 56c | 1,304$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.94 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 52c | 1,178$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Aurora | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,157$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.72 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Aurora | 50c | 1,028$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…2905backed Aurora | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Aurora | 47c | 987.79$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.21 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…d685backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 978.88$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 28c | 947.13$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 930.8$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.81 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 47c | 930.19$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.48 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Aurora | 46c | 911.97$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Aurora | 29c | 818.38$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 817.42$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…953abacked Aurora | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Aurora | 30c | 796.08$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 782.56$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Aurora | 32c | 768$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Aurora | 50c | 761$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…020bbacked Aurora | 50c | 752.52$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 724.04$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…7155backed Aurora | 66c | 647.58$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Aurora | 48c | 616.27$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 30c | 562.32$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Aurora | 41c | 543.5$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.84 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Aurora | 49c | 537.82$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Aurora | 40c | 522.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 519.62$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…7dc8backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 519.45$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…6d93backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 510$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Aurora | 39c | 507.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Aurora | 28c | 507.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Aurora | 50c | 474.93$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…593dbacked Aurora | 53c | 452.47$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 58c | 449.25$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…2f48backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 441.27$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 434.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Aurora | 70c | 407.27$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 55cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Aurora | 20c | 400.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…1249backed Aurora | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Aurora | 52c | 398$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 384.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.38 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…875cbacked Aurora | 51c | 379.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 379.88$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 372.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora | 61c | 348.86$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.97 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Aurora | 33c | 348$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 343.75$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…5a43backed Aurora | 52c | 330$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Aurora | 32c | 319.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…255abacked Aurora | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 301$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…103cbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 300.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…fdd9backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…8c40backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 299$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…e9f3backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 294.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 42c | 293.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.