Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10068000794aa40b7421a0e6726d9ea5496b56ae034a30b1fb71dc57cb81af52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Aurora, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Aurora | 63c | 19,229$12,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,038.73 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 48c | 9,360$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,511.86 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 62c | 8,469$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.77 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 5,680$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.52 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 5,360$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.9 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 4,684$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,671.54 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 4,490$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.46 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…98b9backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 3,257$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Aurora | 64c | 3,129$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 60c | 2,661$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.59 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,300$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 2,225$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.28 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 2,152$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.09 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,038$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.68 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 1,800$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.99 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,661$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.35 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,600$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.32 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,418$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.7 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Aurora | 30c | 1,343$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 1,252$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.48 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…f2ffbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,221$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,145$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.22 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9571…1d98backed Aurora | 70c | 1,143$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,112$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.97 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…2690backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…e822backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 945.31$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Aurora | 77c | 927.11$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.43 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 905.74$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.93 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Aurora | 50c | 862.14$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.22 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 855.6$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 850$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Aurora | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Aurora | 8c | 674.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 656.53$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Aurora | 74c | 538.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 517.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.12 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 476.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Aurora | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 369.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…953abacked Aurora | 57c | 352.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Aurora | 59c | 336.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Aurora | 67c | 334.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 6c | 325$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 324.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.73 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd9…4c3cbacked Aurora | 57c | 270.35$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 256.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 229.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Aurora | 52c | 228.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 217.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 217.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…44adbacked Aurora | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…995abacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 195.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Aurora | 18c | 194.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 192.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 179.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Aurora | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…669abacked Aurora | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Aurora | 53c | 159.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 155.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 66c | 151.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 113.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…156bbacked Aurora | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked Aurora | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 59c | 96.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 96.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed Aurora | 37c | 95.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Aurora | 49c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 38c | 91.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 90.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked Aurora | 71c | 82.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 81.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 75.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Aurora | 40c | 75.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…a1f2backed Aurora | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 64c | 71.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 70.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 67.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…b1d3backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 66.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed Aurora | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…71e3backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 55.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…09f1backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Aurora | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.