Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de57c5c6cc39bb852bc85b469ef69ee2655ce5c9270af32b73a4c5ae80a5773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,149,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,251,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,149,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 8c | 125,145$10,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,471.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 20,929$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.43 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 10c | 20,520$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed Yes | 2c | 17,429$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 14,940$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 20c | 13,862$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,367$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 17c | 10,044$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.28 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…8c04backed Yes | 0c | 9,080$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 17c | 9,079$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.33 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e4…e4e3backed Yes | 8c | 7,840$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,699$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.28 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 7,148$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.85 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…4589backed Yes | 3c | 5,216$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…8bbcbacked Yes | 14c | 4,971$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 15c | 4,952$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…de05backed Yes | 19c | 4,262$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 17c | 4,228$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.77 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…9f37backed Yes | 23c | 4,173$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 77c | 4,168$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 14c | 4,050$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.94 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 9c | 4,013$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.05 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 80c | 4,013$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.55 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 7c | 3,970$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…742cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,833$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…59e8backed No | 79c | 3,547$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 5c | 3,428$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 3,233$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.64 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…75d0backed No | 79c | 3,160$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…ac66backed Yes | 15c | 3,036$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 80c | 3,010$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…2c29backed Yes | 1c | 2,799$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,784$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.22 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fa…cbfdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,784$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…15a0backed Yes | 2c | 2,725$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +247%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 2,591$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…eeb6backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 2,325$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,315$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 2,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,245$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0387…8f92backed Yes | 20c | 2,193$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 23c | 2,133$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…315abacked Yes | 2c | 2,123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…f32bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,117$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,104$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.78 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,043$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…df78backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…abc4backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…beb9backed No | 77c | 1,999$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 79c | 1,924$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…d006backed Yes | 1c | 1,892$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 79c | 1,819$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.05 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce43…415abacked Yes | 10c | 1,740$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…db02backed No | 75c | 1,711$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +323.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206f…4366backed No | 77c | 1,695$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…5f85backed Yes | 12c | 1,676$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,675$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 79c | 1,669$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8193backed Yes | 10c | 1,621$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +285.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…05a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,576$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…916ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,571$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,548$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…edf8backed Yes | 1c | 1,543$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…36ccbacked No | 78c | 1,533$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 17c | 1,436$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…d71ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +178.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,425$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,308$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…e00abacked Yes | 5c | 1,282$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…2d19backed No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe596…e66ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Yes | 18c | 1,278$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,249$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…8961backed Yes | 23c | 1,218$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +470.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…d469backed Yes | 1c | 1,198$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…bc6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,077$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…e48ebacked No | 80c | 1,039$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 80c | 1,019$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.63 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…06f1backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…7251backed Yes | 4c | 945.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 17c | 934.43$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes | 9c | 915.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 16c | 910.31$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…2e23backed Yes | 24c | 840$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…e30fbacked Yes | 25c | 809.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 747.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 11c | 742.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…2217backed Yes | 1c | 733.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 12c | 701.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.