Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2644daf3dcb30f961352661c8a0aa2d4eb55bee03186b1eac6062807e64af8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $949,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,040,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $949,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 126,758$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.94 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Yes | 2c | 42,823$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.83 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,942$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a7c4backed Yes | 4c | 22,988$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 3c | 21,258$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 21,000$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa944…461abacked Yes | 3c | 18,716$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…49e9backed Yes | 1c | 17,706$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes | 3c | 16,911$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,713$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…86e4backed Yes | 3c | 13,858$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 13,116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 9,532$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 9,303$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,181$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…de52backed Yes | 0c | 5,959$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…ff44backed Yes | 3c | 4,065$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,030$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…054dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…632bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,580$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,571$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,052$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,976$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,795$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…e480backed Yes | 2c | 2,638$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…b682backed Yes | 2c | 2,434$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,690$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,621$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 1,577$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,472$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,379$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…efbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…7d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,015$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…a298backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 1c | 999.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…47b9backed Yes | 1c | 995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 978$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…187fbacked Yes | 1c | 922$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…fdfcbacked Yes | 3c | 889.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 858.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 810.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…f504backed Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…651ebacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 2c | 601.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92e…fccbbacked Yes | 3c | 553.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…261ebacked Yes | 2c | 526.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.49per pick | 8cpaid | +496.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…672fbacked Yes | 2c | 488.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 336.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.