Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4caa0799814d8094d04c582d4d8a5b340f035fc5e2c8e710c03bf3f980b6c8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda17…d901backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 14c | 14,967$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.17 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed No | 17c | 11,377$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…2143backed No | 13c | 8,684$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 10c | 4,222$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…b541backed Yes | 75c | 3,997$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 78c | 3,156$2,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.24 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 2,864$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.47 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 2,524$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 24c | 2,400$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 17c | 1,600$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 1,475$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 19c | 1,435$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.16 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,340$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 1,049$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…a92fbacked No | 16c | 1,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 1,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 999.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 7c | 980.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 906.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…238cbacked No | 34c | 891$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.94 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…0aa8backed No | 17c | 882.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 26c | 661.49$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed No | 12c | 540$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 79c | 515$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…a457backed No | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…c812backed No | 11c | 489.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 12c | 355.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac2…9895backed No | 14c | 272.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…438abacked Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 12c | 233.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…f73abacked No | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…28b1backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 10c | 148.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…3cc7backed No | 19c | 124.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 14c | 108.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…4f03backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…5edfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +394.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…963cbacked No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…f3f1backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…63f5backed No | 17c | 63.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…30aebacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked Yes | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.