TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,341,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,280,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,341,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes1c79,268$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.351288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes2c41,523$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.313729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xadb4…3214backed Yes0c33,160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.38per pick20cpaid+516.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16f…655cbacked Yes3c29,855$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.072313%3 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…0600backed Yes2c28,875$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.31241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick16cpaid+169.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes1c27,248$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+93.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c22,321$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6118315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes3c20,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0568…1c5dbacked Yes0c19,980$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+629.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c19,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,888$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x432e…40e7backed Yes0c12,441$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c11,991$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes2c11,667$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.371010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…1263backed Yes1c11,520$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c11,398$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe371…1115backed Yes1c10,715$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125c…78dbbacked Yes1c10,715$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf795…57adbacked Yes1c10,705$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd076…c63abacked Yes1c10,705$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ace4backed Yes1c10,625$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c6…6183backed Yes1c10,625$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…019ebacked Yes2c8,705$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002740.7%11 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick12cpaid+234%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c8,501$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes1c8,422$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.453611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9787…a146backed Yes1c7,674$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5f…2820backed Yes2c7,660$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39a…df30backed Yes2c7,655$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes0c7,649$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c7,524$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.576785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa398…73b0backed Yes1c7,474$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c6,942$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes1c6,689$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes2c6,221$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes2c5,708$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked Yes2c5,634$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes1c5,505$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.752737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes1c5,208$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.565425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf572…1dadbacked Yes3c5,030$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c5,001$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,999$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.21,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes1c4,901$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.262030%6 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+535.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa2…692fbacked Yes1c4,123$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+419.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c3,824$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.015817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes2c3,738$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eaf…c988backed Yes1c3,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+943.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4198…ae38backed Yes1c3,198$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d7…24a2backed Yes1c2,881$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e5…5db0backed Yes1c2,861$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cb…a5bebacked Yes1c2,853$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes4c2,745$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1133321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x537e…8a59backed Yes1c2,730$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…c491backed Yes1c2,726$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca05…d1c4backed Yes1c2,701$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes0c2,624$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d53…9819backed Yes1c2,509$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes4c2,133$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.44030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…42eebacked Yes4c2,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+110.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c1,953$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.233998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8355…80d4backed Yes1c1,816$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes1c1,770$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.45911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e1…1728backed Yes1c1,621$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+188.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,591$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.932125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c1,552$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.07855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes1c1,457$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.144526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes1c1,431$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.026221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x685f…ddf5backed Yes3c1,250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,193$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes3c1,184$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.823839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes2c1,171$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,037$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes3c1,028$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.785034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f8…4265backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed Yes4c1,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes5c980.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+475.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bcb…71f4backed Yes1c945$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708a…87aabacked Yes1c930$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb802…c51bbacked Yes1c905$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5301…facfbacked Yes1c899$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ea…8912backed Yes1c890$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5d…d1b3backed Yes3c721.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick16cpaid+292.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes2c715.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+209.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes4c627.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283020%6 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+142.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd996…2ababacked Yes2c579.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes4c526.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%3 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+641.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf7c…acc0backed Yes4c407.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…972dbacked Yes3c353.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+164%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa28c…9390backed Yes4c319.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+1,186.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f4c…d670backed Yes11c185.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea7…b987backed Yes8c176.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.