TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,213,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,178,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,213,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes7c78,036$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,443.9135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes2c30,611$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.516123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c27,000$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes2c22,772$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.893729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,887$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes2c17,735$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.623414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes5c16,897$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7822520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes0c15,699$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c15,033$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.261,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb4…3214backed Yes0c14,799$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.171258.3%7 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.38per pick20cpaid+516.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed Yes0c14,368$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.471154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89da…aac2backed Yes2c14,317$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c13,480$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes2c12,575$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.45224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes9c11,463$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0141637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+209.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed Yes13c10,224$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed No76c10,059$7,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.6547721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c9,985$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.366785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…5bb8backed Yes0c9,775$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes12c8,600$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c8,200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes3c8,177$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.835425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c7,495$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.255817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a77…019ebacked Yes3c6,274$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1662740.7%11 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick12cpaid+234%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8355…80d4backed Yes1c6,270$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.731010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…1263backed Yes2c5,728$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eaf…c988backed Yes2c5,319$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+943.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c5,075$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.528411.9%10 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+599.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes2c4,943$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.473611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes11c4,568$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ac…abccbacked Yes2c4,497$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+528.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4198…ae38backed Yes5c4,124$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…7a94backed Yes0c3,832$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c3,709$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.262125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…eee7backed Yes1c3,611$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+61.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44fc…cbe3backed Yes1c3,604$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+474.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes3c3,553$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes2c3,468$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+1,064.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c3,318$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.733998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes2c3,286$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.763630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe551…7382backed Yes1c3,238$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5b…f344backed Yes19c3,146$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.65per pick19cpaid+1,105.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c3,113$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c3,016$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…1dadbacked Yes7c3,000$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes2c2,991$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa2…692fbacked Yes2c2,982$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+419.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c2,971$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.74526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77fb…2772backed Yes1c2,959$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe716…0d7dbacked Yes1c2,901$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x559f…503cbacked Yes1c2,851$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x776d…b3c2backed Yes1c2,798$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2a…b170backed Yes1c2,782$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes1c2,638$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c2,543$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes4c2,378$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+201.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6592…1e99backed Yes1c2,321$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181020%2 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+351.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes3c2,150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8937…80d9backed Yes1c2,144$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+792.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5545…a07dbacked Yes4c2,135$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c2,057$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.592999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f05…8a73backed Yes9c2,027$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.681520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+165.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…6361backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd444…67d6backed Yes3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+762.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b85…cd3abacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes1c1,985$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes6c1,769$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick7cpaid+504%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes2c1,737$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.371010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes1c1,683$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9617…14cdbacked Yes2c1,580$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes1c1,570$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c1,536$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.13855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2e…4b74backed Yes4c1,530$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+251.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f1…3cdfbacked Yes16c1,491$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+63.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…42eebacked Yes4c1,434$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.431050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+110.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes1c1,400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked Yes12c1,400$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+273.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…e311backed Yes1c1,392$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151353.8%7 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.44per pick10cpaid+801.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes5c1,366$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cc…9144backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+773.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa776…11c5backed Yes1c1,178$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,167$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.79985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c1,157$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20db…f886backed Yes9c1,136$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick25cpaid+145.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes2c1,093$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes9c1,057$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.094030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes2c1,032$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16567.1%4 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b81…4754backed Yes3c1,030$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes3c1,002$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb2…1c0abacked Yes7c1,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9455…2530backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c991.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c973.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes1c934.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2212020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b71…5f5abacked Yes3c931.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes2c912.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf8…026dbacked Yes11c911.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bc…040ebacked Yes2c903.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.