Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1eba5241cb202fc4e79d27281f70eaab5493b8de4e473c90bbdd23a9c8bf16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $673,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $688,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $673,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 26,653$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 1c | 23,313$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 21,043$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,635$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,644$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +406%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 1c | 15,600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…789ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,266$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +756.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 15,037$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,594$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…d33ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,660$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,149$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 1c | 7,446$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…de52backed Yes | 0c | 6,227$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,459$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 1c | 4,491$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,490$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…08eebacked Yes | 0c | 4,071$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 2,878$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…b05ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,861$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…6ab5backed Yes | 1c | 2,858$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…9505backed Yes | 1c | 2,848$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…4206backed Yes | 1c | 2,814$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…4340backed Yes | 1c | 2,787$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…37dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,780$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…acf1backed Yes | 1c | 2,671$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d6…c40ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,669$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…b987backed Yes | 3c | 1,280$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.