TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$814,343
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$802,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,343 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c72,970$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.28590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c29,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c23,424$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.162290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes5c22,203$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.58100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes4c19,896$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.0747721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,375$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c13,514$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c12,019$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.061070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f7…f5dcbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick1cpaid+2,154.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c10,856$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.96785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes4c9,995$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes4c9,880$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.3463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x554f…2869backed Yes2c8,250$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28c0…e924backed Yes6c7,916$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.661250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes5c7,722$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94a…fc5dbacked Yes1c7,620$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e5…8d07backed Yes1c7,620$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76f…970cbacked Yes4c6,197$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c5,534$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.644163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes4c4,368$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes3c3,587$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.163729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes2c3,567$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.215817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c3,220$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.28855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c3,001$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.442125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Yes8c2,621$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes3c2,579$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.926625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…46acbacked Yes0c2,561$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b2…ff44backed Yes6c2,407$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes4c2,353$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.31280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec38…fdfcbacked Yes6c2,202$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6523…89d8backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc778…8c92backed Yes4c2,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0adf…444ebacked Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298d…ddb9backed Yes2c1,976$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.091618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c1,973$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c1,945$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.223998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c37…e508backed Yes3c1,923$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes5c1,894$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked Yes5c1,820$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes1c1,784$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648d…632bbacked Yes6c1,720$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,588$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24660%0 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes3c1,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes1c1,448$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,441$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.361,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes6c1,392$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8937745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes2c1,368$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.362030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c1,360$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.711463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c1,119$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes4c1,071$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.79224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes2c1,060$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe014…18b5backed Yes2c1,055$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.07714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c1,032$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.734526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3c…6cecbacked Yes5c1,016$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes6c1,005$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60160%0 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c1,003$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.661073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb28…b7acbacked Yes5c1,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3aa…01a0backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes4c998.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.441203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes3c942.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes4c933.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes5c931.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c897.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.051499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee28…2036backed Yes5c893.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e9…fa50backed Yes3c804.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe596…e66ebacked Yes2c803.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a47…aa53backed Yes5c800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.44415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c797.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.922999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x666f…d6a0backed Yes5c784.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes4c726.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.593414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes4c719.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadbb…efbdbacked Yes1c679.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984d…b682backed Yes3c633.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20b…2773backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes3c580$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes3c575.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+183.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5332…fab3backed Yes2c552.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5214…9196backed Yes4c517.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes5c499.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…4a78backed Yes4c479.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94de…74bcbacked Yes4c465.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Yes5c425.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f9…24bbbacked Yes5c364.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.370%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes4c335.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b3…4203backed Yes4c310.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7c…20edbacked Yes4c299.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4e…c1fcbacked Yes4c260.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x100f…b0f0backed Yes4c245.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed Yes8c235.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a6…37b9backed Yes4c232.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c225$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.918919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d9…3c5cbacked Yes5c221$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c45…110dbacked Yes5c216.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6d…7104backed Yes8c196.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.