Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e245e6b4b321666946d638e9dcc82742784d44ae108b8d8f9b31e0560e7085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $934,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $944,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $934,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 9c | 39,941$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 9c | 36,597$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.67 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 35,240$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.97 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 21,834$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 17,459$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 8c | 16,577$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.53 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 9c | 12,711$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.74 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 7c | 12,700$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e4…e4e3backed Yes | 5c | 10,264$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe596…e66ebacked Yes | 11c | 9,857$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…4589backed Yes | 1c | 9,735$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 9,401$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.53 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 8,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 13c | 7,699$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes | 4c | 6,010$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,205$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.66 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 4c | 4,619$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.69 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f1…f53cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,485$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…eeb6backed Yes | 6c | 4,477$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…05a8backed Yes | 6c | 4,325$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 4,310$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 3,981$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,849$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…de52backed Yes | 0c | 3,831$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,691$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +426.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes | 5c | 3,677$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,581$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,538$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.23 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 2c | 3,533$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…8661backed Yes | 0c | 3,373$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 1c | 3,185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0387…8f92backed Yes | 10c | 2,946$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 10c | 2,708$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.89 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 2,706$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…742cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,358$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 9c | 2,311$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…36a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,257$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,179$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 2,100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 2c | 2,071$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,011$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…7d4fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…1e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +351.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…85a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,765$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…632bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,612$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,517$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 1,440$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 1,304$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,287$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 1,277$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ef…d580backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…5f85backed Yes | 4c | 1,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 9c | 1,104$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,097$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 4c | 1,075$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,030$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…a000backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1309…ad99backed Yes | 5c | 999.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…a07fbacked Yes | 2c | 952.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 935.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 2c | 923.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 921.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…3370backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…e096backed Yes | 10c | 755.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…f13bbacked Yes | 15c | 740$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 10c | 675.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 7c | 671.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 8c | 649.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…af91backed Yes | 8c | 597.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 7cpaid | +931.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 8c | 573.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 9c | 512.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes | 4c | 505.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…b3e8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…5368backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…2973backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…4c41backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…ff44backed Yes | 10c | 452.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…79b5backed Yes | 10c | 435$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…135fbacked Yes | 15c | 432.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…a66bbacked Yes | 6c | 421.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 406.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…9e3bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 6c | 398.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…b682backed Yes | 5c | 394.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 11c | 381.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.