TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$934,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$944,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $934,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0914…9c93backed Yes9c39,941$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,479.95100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes9c36,597$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.673729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c35,240$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.97590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c21,834$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.132290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c17,459$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.311360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes8c16,577$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.5363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes9c12,711$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.7447721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes7c12,700$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84318315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e4…e4e3backed Yes5c10,264$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe596…e66ebacked Yes11c9,857$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc49…4589backed Yes1c9,735$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c9,401$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.536785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c8,009$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.031070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e47…1268backed Yes13c7,699$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes1c6,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes4c6,010$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.87224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes7c5,205$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.6687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes4c4,619$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.698713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f1…f53cbacked Yes10c4,485$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eee…eeb6backed Yes6c4,477$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes6c4,325$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed Yes1c4,310$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes6c3,981$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.334526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,849$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.852125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed Yes0c3,831$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes1c3,691$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+426.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes5c3,677$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.78137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb76f…970cbacked Yes8c3,581$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.49200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes10c3,538$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.237018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c3,533$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.553998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b0…8661backed Yes0c3,373$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Yes6c3,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes1c3,185$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0387…8f92backed Yes10c2,946$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes10c2,708$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8914337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes5c2,706$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.915034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62a…742cbacked Yes4c2,501$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+120.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes1c2,358$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.296221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes9c2,311$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2417231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5484…36a7backed Yes1c2,257$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes9c2,179$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.263537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes3c2,100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.175817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes2c2,071$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes6c2,011$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.65855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…7d4fbacked Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6592…1e99backed Yes1c1,786$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131020%2 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+351.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22c2…85a2backed Yes1c1,765$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-85.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648d…632bbacked Yes12c1,612$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,517$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.321,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes3c1,440$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.124934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes1c1,311$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c1,304$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.331463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,287$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c1,277$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes6c1,200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ef…d580backed Yes7c1,200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…5f85backed Yes4c1,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c1,124$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.03636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes9c1,104$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a38…360bbacked Yes7c1,097$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.621165.2%6 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes4c1,075$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.532030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes6c1,030$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+325.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…a000backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…64aebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100300%0 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1309…ad99backed Yes5c999.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e79…a07fbacked Yes2c952.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c935.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.881499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c923.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.164517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes8c921.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.621073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9968…3370backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes10c755.07$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5077…f13bbacked Yes15c740$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes10c675.32$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5311726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes7c671.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.974615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-83.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes8c649.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x475a…af91backed Yes8c597.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick7cpaid+931.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes8c573.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.535837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c512.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes4c505.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick4cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e21…9665backed Yes5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x737f…b3e8backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e5…5368backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae1…2973backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e8…82d1backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141b…4c41backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b2…ff44backed Yes10c452.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d70…79b5backed Yes10c435$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f4…135fbacked Yes15c432.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…a66bbacked Yes6c421.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.46812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+150%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c406.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.732999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffb0…9e3bbacked Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes6c398.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x984d…b682backed Yes5c394.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes11c381.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.582123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.