Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c6ce5c8bb91c380e5bf9c5d495a40178ac10377aa7bb5bbf0d40a34830bb2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,219,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,942,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,219,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 3,055,137$3,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,255.14 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 0c | 1,945,153$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…3de0backed Yes | 0c | 600,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…0d36backed Yes | 0c | 369,117$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 337,848$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.7 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 139,003$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.01 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 136,658$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 110,295$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.64 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d86…fcbcbacked Yes | 0c | 105,698$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491b…aa57backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…2e30backed Yes | 0c | 41,211$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…744fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,914$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…bda4backed Yes | 0c | 28,629$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 0c | 28,254$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 27,098$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…054dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,615$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…e480backed Yes | 0c | 23,967$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 0c | 20,029$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…6c5dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5b77backed Yes | 0c | 19,967$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 0c | 19,031$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 0c | 17,833$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes | 0c | 15,554$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afa…d246backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,033$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…a356backed Yes | 0c | 12,321$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…cae2backed Yes | 0c | 12,320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x620a…ec6dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,298$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…67e7backed Yes | 0c | 10,816$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,314$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…1173backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…24b6backed Yes | 1c | 9,900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…c5cdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…6efbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…5f85backed Yes | 0c | 8,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…f406backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…4362backed Yes | 0c | 7,667$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…ddb9backed Yes | 0c | 7,667$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…0e8bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,576$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…c6c1backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 0c | 7,410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…b682backed Yes | 0c | 6,917$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…10febacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…b675backed Yes | 0c | 6,635$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3666…7a68backed Yes | 0c | 6,234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…55c8backed Yes | 0c | 5,843$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…4214backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6159backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 5,494$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476f…74c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,357$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…ac89backed Yes | 0c | 5,055$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…632bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…906bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,998$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…0b9bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,701$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…47b4backed Yes | 0c | 4,646$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…ff44backed Yes | 1c | 3,394$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf248…c4b4backed Yes | 0c | 2,928$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…a695backed Yes | 0c | 2,578$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3303backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…7d4fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…82ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…6443backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.