TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Nemesis (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$360,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$421,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2307…3934backed Team Nemesis33c13,091$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,340.0822848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Team Liquid56c11,698$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,198.318245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis21c10,755$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.251,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc1…cdf3backed Team Nemesis0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a5…3a9ebacked Team Nemesis0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Nemesis19c8,314$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.6855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Team Nemesis44c7,902$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.964746.8%22 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis21c6,645$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.542,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Team Nemesis23c6,508$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.187846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Liquid68c5,043$3,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.878046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Nemesis21c4,792$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.7525444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Team Nemesis21c4,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9456854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Liquid74c4,401$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.6630138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Team Liquid79c4,269$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.9966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Team Nemesis12c4,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Liquid78c3,824$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.0986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis23c3,818$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.5273841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Nemesis22c3,685$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.178540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Nemesis23c3,649$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.8619047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Nemesis20c3,355$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7510338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc64…d596backed Team Nemesis8c2,730$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Team Nemesis28c2,600$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.6325547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Liquid59c2,543$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.811557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Team Nemesis25c2,527$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.34150%0 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Team Nemesis13c2,500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.994645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Nemesis38c2,339$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Team Nemesis11c2,149$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4222033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b0…18adbacked Team Nemesis14c2,120$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Team Nemesis23c2,099$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.1816058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Nemesis22c1,787$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd640…8e24backed Team Nemesis23c1,762$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis23c1,732$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.1362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Team Liquid80c1,700$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3451764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Team Liquid71c1,689$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.1410833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa79f…ff1bbacked Team Nemesis6c1,678$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Nemesis12c1,669$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6739936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Nemesis13c1,600$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9921847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Liquid58c1,552$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.8818452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Team Nemesis24c1,540$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.736261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Team Nemesis18c1,480$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.18627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6f…b384backed Team Nemesis10c1,474$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Team Nemesis15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Liquid79c1,269$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1145061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Liquid80c1,255$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.748648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Nemesis20c1,255$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8140014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0431545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Team Nemesis15c1,217$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Nemesis22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22019147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Team Nemesis14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Team Liquid80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Team Liquid56c999.98$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.994264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Team Nemesis23c993.25$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.789838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Nemesis18c944.01$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0936442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2c…6962backed Team Nemesis26c932.03$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.482142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Nemesis33c899.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29714538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Nemesis18c870.29$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2414251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9571…1d98backed Team Liquid78c844.9$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.881662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Team Nemesis13c781.89$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.565137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Nemesis21c779.97$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Nemesis13c652.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.819943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Liquid77c650.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6656848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Liquid76c632.14$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.128149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb61…8e04backed Team Liquid59c627.12$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Team Nemesis14c609.18$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.291838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Liquid75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Nemesis14c599.87$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0949133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Liquid79c545.21$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4916665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Team Nemesis24c518.4$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3914446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed Team Liquid69c503.15$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Nemesis18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Team Liquid75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Nemesis12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f8…09f7backed Team Liquid80c489.18$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.185100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe279…42c5backed Team Nemesis13c470$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick17cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Team Nemesis14c463.52$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.183625%9 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb5…e30dbacked Team Nemesis22c461.61$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4283…b5dabacked Team Liquid79c458.69$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.954678.3%36 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcff2…9ef0backed Team Nemesis11c448$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Team Nemesis43c420$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Nemesis24c417.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Team Nemesis24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Nemesis24c404.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1934146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Team Liquid78c400$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.645750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Liquid78c397.44$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.446142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Nemesis44c396.48$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Team Liquid80c361.01$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed Team Nemesis24c356$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.634052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9c…7fa0backed Team Nemesis7c354.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.065335.8%19 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd333…2a71backed Team Liquid59c349.15$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.152842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b7…103cbacked Team Liquid78c346.58$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.52771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Team Nemesis14c331.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.411947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Liquid76c329.99$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.937832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Nemesis45c327.51$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9261449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2842…e81bbacked Team Nemesis6c326.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8254…137fbacked Team Nemesis20c319$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Liquid64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.535370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Team Liquid59c303.69$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.515060%30 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe214…e516backed Team Nemesis13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Liquid75c299$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.45044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Team Nemesis19c292.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.