Token Launches · resolved market
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5668f4a751b63074099b8b3a0e7d7c7c80be7ec54952a0a362da9b3e4219f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,161$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…6227backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…0621backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9be…06f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea4…5afbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,316$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…d174backed Yes | 4c | 1,992$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,696$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead4…7c8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,633$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…77d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…d0c2backed Yes | 3c | 967.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…4e68backed Yes | 3c | 883.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 780$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 6c | 723$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 682.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 624.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 3c | 533$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked Yes | 12c | 528$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 453.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 3c | 383.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 361.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb2…35a4backed Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 194.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8193backed Yes | 12c | 181.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 6c | 157.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed Yes | 18c | 121.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 11c | 121.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Yes | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Yes | 12c | 102.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…75bfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?this page
- Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.