Token Launches · resolved market
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34f917ac43012929728ddc67274eb678d1a04b360742b5b48933934fdb956df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $451,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 15c | 26,926$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…91dfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 41c | 17,000$7,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,008.13 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…d475backed Yes | 25c | 12,518$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 80c | 9,235$7,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 30c | 8,808$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…bb57backed Yes | 16c | 7,200$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 6,728$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.87 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 63c | 5,864$3,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.65 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 75c | 5,743$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.62 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 35c | 5,680$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.3 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 45c | 5,635$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.03 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…3249backed Yes | 11c | 5,435$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…32b0backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Yes | 45c | 4,649$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.59 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,264$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed No | 67c | 4,219$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…7314backed No | 54c | 3,890$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…9bd0backed Yes | 27c | 3,871$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 46c | 3,507$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 35c | 3,486$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.88 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 3,456$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.39 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…462ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,443$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,350$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 65c | 3,325$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.24 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 76c | 3,100$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.98 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…ce91backed No | 66c | 3,042$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…470dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,992$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…4402backed Yes | 17c | 2,862$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…080fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,716$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.07 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 59c | 2,659$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b164backed Yes | 13c | 2,445$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ea…0a88backed No | 41c | 2,407$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 75c | 2,367$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 16c | 2,270$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 72c | 2,230$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 40c | 2,164$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked Yes | 48c | 2,146$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5c…d123backed No | 49c | 2,116$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…bd15backed No | 71c | 2,012$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 46c | 2,003$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.49 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…e7bbbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed No | 80c | 1,994$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.56 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed No | 65c | 1,987$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,906$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 5c | 1,726$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ac…3d71backed Yes | 17c | 1,720$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,616$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,595$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 1,589$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.77 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbc…167cbacked No | 68c | 1,586$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,536$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.11 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 25c | 1,487$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.11 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…594fbacked No | 68c | 1,462$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…281bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,433$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 24c | 1,414$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.47 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…3697backed Yes | 53c | 1,345$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,308$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 47c | 1,253$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…55e1backed No | 52c | 1,244$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…3a0fbacked No | 71c | 1,226$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 47c | 1,200$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.34 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 14c | 1,165$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,160$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 43c | 1,155$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.59 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 72c | 1,154$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 51c | 1,134$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.81 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 71c | 1,117$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…fc38backed Yes | 14c | 1,072$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…42e0backed No | 69c | 1,037$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…c245backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 71c | 996.42$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.41 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…03acbacked Yes | 37c | 990$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…a27abacked Yes | 35c | 980$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x150f…158abacked Yes | 42c | 975.32$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed Yes | 41c | 974.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 73c | 957.69$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 16c | 944$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 42c | 941.91$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 899.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 24c | 880.06$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5c…7daabacked Yes | 36c | 875.22$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…0009backed Yes | 12c | 869.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…c0e5backed Yes | 25c | 852.89$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…7942backed No | 62c | 804.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…7e40backed Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 799.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…f1ddbacked Yes | 13c | 776.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 45c | 750.04$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked Yes | 11c | 748.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…460dbacked Yes | 23c | 742.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 77c | 710.19$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 68c | 699.99$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 699.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.