Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff129c6f6737846a0b7912778da9c68f3766fbe4c8056224bd12de7e3ecfc10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 69c | 56,780$39,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,696.92 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 38c | 24,768$9,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,408.61 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 70c | 19,628$13,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,831.48 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 33c | 14,632$4,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,870.6 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 29c | 14,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 34c | 13,506$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.09 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 55c | 12,821$7,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,736.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 9,709$3,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772.97 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 30c | 8,305$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 37c | 8,072$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 68c | 6,924$4,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 53c | 5,518$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.74 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 65c | 5,120$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 74c | 4,607$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 4,207$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.75 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 75c | 4,007$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 68c | 4,000$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.4 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Yes | 54c | 3,344$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 65c | 3,081$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 3,050$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.91 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 2,931$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.15 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 36c | 2,790$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 40c | 2,532$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.44 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 67c | 2,488$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.07 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 2,382$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.23 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 64c | 2,100$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 2,028$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.4 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 35c | 2,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 57c | 1,737$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.04 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 31c | 1,699$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 42c | 1,667$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 1,594$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.11 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…edd9backed Yes | 61c | 1,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 1,374$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.18 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 1,311$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.2 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 44c | 1,254$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.11 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 1,176$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 46c | 1,123$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…3c1fbacked No | 37c | 1,051$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 1,042$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.73 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 67c | 1,019$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed No | 34c | 999.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 993.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.56 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 77c | 945$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.45 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…c88ebacked Yes | 56c | 921.2$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…1d24backed No | 39c | 900$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 61c | 880$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 52c | 875.29$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 58c | 831.52$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 64c | 809.11$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 752.95$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.23 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 34c | 748.74$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2014…54ecbacked No | 26c | 729.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 32c | 710$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 37c | 691.87$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 74c | 650$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.86 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 555$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.23 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…46e3backed No | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked Yes | 61c | 502$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…407ebacked No | 49c | 500$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…494bbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…ce1fbacked Yes | 64c | 480$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 74c | 457.31$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…b88abacked No | 38c | 405.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 41c | 400$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed Yes | 64c | 400$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc082…eb9bbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 45c | 395.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 11c | 385.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…b976backed Yes | 69c | 382.38$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 50c | 372.97$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked Yes | 60c | 371.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 370$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 33c | 351.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Yes | 54c | 350.09$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 67c | 343.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…c94bbacked No | 29c | 321.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…a907backed No | 48c | 316$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 315$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 300.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…bdb6backed No | 40c | 299$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…2ec2backed No | 46c | 292.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 42c | 292$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 40c | 288.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…7aaebacked No | 38c | 277.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260e…73e9backed Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 263.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 29c | 254.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d37…48abbacked Yes | 55c | 254.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?this page
- Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Julie Menin be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Lina Khan be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Scott Stringer be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.