Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42612a6ea2c06736853604ee6287f64f94aca371144b1254a6a19fcb27b01ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 1c | 5,422$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,715$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 743.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 639.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 2c | 575.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 558.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 16c | 546.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 21c | 516.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 19c | 507.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 8c | 506$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 454.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 16c | 439$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 426.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 3c | 404.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 381.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…3616backed Yes | 12c | 302.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…72aabacked No | 77c | 228.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 17c | 178$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 19c | 168.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 18c | 164.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 140.07$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 126.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…52e6backed Yes | 13c | 113.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 25c | 105.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 22c | 95.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 76.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 70.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 42.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…790abacked No | 74c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…9bb1backed No | 78c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?this page
- Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Julie Menin be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Lina Khan be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
- Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes won
- Will Scott Stringer be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.