AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4601fee738c3f9482c385bb78f353b8d69db8eb683d3fda17aa1a9bdf03383a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 19c | 1,289$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.25 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 2c | 1,182$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 4c | 368.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 64c | 336.22$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 29c | 221.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 43c | 172.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 36c | 165.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 153.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 130.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 71c | 104.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…b5a1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…136bbacked Yes | 73c | 99.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed No | 27c | 74.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…2d0cbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 67c | 73.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 31c | 63.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 71c | 55.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 73c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.