Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ae35bd487697804e51fbd1e2a2019b977ba0ead721d3cd743211c3e16b15e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $386,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 76c | 28,711$21,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,941.19 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 29c | 21,155$6,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,096.64 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 22c | 13,096$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 80c | 11,427$9,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.27 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 16c | 10,146$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.33 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 21c | 7,259$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.47 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 31c | 7,004$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.64 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked No | 2c | 5,650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 48c | 5,291$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.42 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 5,144$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.65 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 4,998$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.9 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed No | 26c | 4,230$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…2342backed Yes | 72c | 3,800$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 73c | 3,607$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.96 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 38c | 3,284$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.61 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 22c | 3,018$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…8255backed No | 24c | 2,911$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 21c | 2,642$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 16c | 2,406$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 52c | 2,250$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.63 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 37c | 2,223$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 36c | 2,055$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 75c | 1,989$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.84 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 78c | 1,805$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 1,631$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.48 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 1,600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,559$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.19 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,533$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.93 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 1,524$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.34 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…dfaebacked No | 26c | 1,459$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 1,342$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 31c | 1,256$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 1,252$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed No | 55c | 1,214$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked Yes | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 1,167$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,152$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed No | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked No | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed No | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 2c | 1,080$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 29c | 1,060$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 32c | 1,038$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…6a73backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 46c | 991$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 7c | 916.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 840$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 36c | 834.97$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 825.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed No | 38c | 800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 764.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 30c | 750$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 747.09$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 64c | 742.78$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 30c | 734$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.61 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 18c | 701.17$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…6acfbacked Yes | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 700$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 16c | 686.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 78c | 661.2$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 73c | 660$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 47c | 600$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 33c | 556.53$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 4c | 555$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 23c | 546.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 33c | 527$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 519.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…5d97backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…5ff5backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…56e0backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…ab32backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…53b0backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed No | 17c | 480.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…150abacked No | 11c | 468.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b9…da59backed No | 26c | 453.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 39c | 450$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…edb3backed No | 45c | 440.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed Yes | 72c | 425.09$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 16c | 421.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked No | 20c | 421.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…95b8backed No | 14c | 417.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 70c | 392.5$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 67c | 392.1$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 25c | 384.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…e542backed No | 31c | 381.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 69c | 369.32$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 74c | 365$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 45c | 359.84$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked No | 14c | 353.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c8…c674backed No | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 9c | 348.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.