Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b4c47a6308364eb408ba749909816582120894769648e9ebc39eb8fe6076cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 13,518$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.33 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 4c | 12,713$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.57 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 7c | 5,342$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.94 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 4c | 4,524$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,082$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 4,055$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,867$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 6c | 1,805$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…37fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,761$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,370$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,294$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,037$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 879.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 843.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 742.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 722.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 689.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 5c | 628.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 607.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 4c | 569.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 23c | 534.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 9c | 475.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 459.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 3c | 426.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 420.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 402.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…6909backed Yes | 3c | 381$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 6c | 375.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 8c | 346.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…6b06backed Yes | 5c | 339.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 7c | 325$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 6c | 309.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 7c | 302$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes | 5c | 296.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…5af9backed Yes | 7c | 259.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…d44fbacked Yes | 6c | 249.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 226.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 11c | 222.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 8c | 217.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…6316backed Yes | 11c | 178.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 175.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 17c | 174.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…0558backed Yes | 8c | 163.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…6cdabacked Yes | 9c | 156.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 11c | 103.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ade…5413backed Yes | 16c | 93.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 72.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.