Commodities · resolved market
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e92e7b74622744a547269f546396efff4f4c30af7a0ce7af51bbaa67a83339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 15,582$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.89 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 4c | 8,874$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.01 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,432$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,407$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 4,339$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 2c | 3,757$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…c328backed Yes | 1c | 2,430$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 9c | 1,598$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,453$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,137$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 4c | 1,085$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 869.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 838.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 2c | 831.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 800.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 742.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 661.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes | 7c | 644.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 634.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 609.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes | 2c | 595.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 8c | 432.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 356.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 325.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 6c | 325$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 4c | 320.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 13c | 295.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 13c | 230$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 10c | 222.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 5c | 219$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…d44fbacked Yes | 11c | 217.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 6c | 211.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…7504backed Yes | 7c | 203.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 15c | 109.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 102.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 14c | 94.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 18c | 82.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 72.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 20c | 68.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 74c | 28.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?this page
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.