Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9e7883499172e6585601542570e05965039265604c8d256c9ff7f149a811d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 10c | 8,425$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.42 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 11c | 5,765$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.63 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 6c | 5,620$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.08 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 11c | 3,997$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 8c | 3,129$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.32 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,975$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 30c | 2,555$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,528$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…b0febacked Yes | 14c | 2,112$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 11c | 1,805$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 8c | 1,763$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,242$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.89 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,233$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,191$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,003$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…5af9backed Yes | 14c | 987.18$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 17c | 986.77$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 11c | 935.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…37fabacked Yes | 6c | 794.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 771.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 769.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 742.78$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 70c | 740$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 665.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…a4bbbacked Yes | 6c | 621.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 14c | 612.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 14c | 609.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…62debacked Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 553.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 26c | 480$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 449.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 14c | 438$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 11c | 373$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 9c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…47e4backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 13c | 325$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 12c | 325$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 314.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 28c | 306.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…d44fbacked Yes | 13c | 305.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 12c | 249.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…82e7backed Yes | 8c | 245.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 24c | 222.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…15b4backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 199.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed No | 80c | 190.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 8c | 174.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 22c | 170.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 9c | 168$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…b608backed No | 67c | 153.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 144.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 11c | 141.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f08…a861backed Yes | 36c | 138.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 37c | 136.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 38c | 132.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 12c | 123.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…a6f4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c2…7ce4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 71c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2e…9bd4backed Yes | 14c | 97.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 19c | 96.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a0…c396backed Yes | 14c | 87.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 18c | 78.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 72.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 32c | 71.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…fc4dbacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 17c | 65.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 60.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 24c | 60.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 28c | 59.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 26c | 52.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c0…1b5bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 27c | 44.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.