TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x91a5…ef2e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4920.4%10 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$186.81
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.2
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$89
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.5
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+201.8%+$201.79
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+258.3%+$423.68
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+315.1%+$233.14
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+52%+$51.28
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.99
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.45
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.38
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+57.4%+$174.33
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+167%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$52.5
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.19
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+1,945.5%+$214
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+88.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+119.7%+$119.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.42
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+388%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+388%+$484.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.