Token Launches · resolved market
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b885b84d42eee16005c09c4d37822b6ed3dd7261b9e04686c08e3f71e4f66c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $454,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $454,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 64c | 32,727$21,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,651.73 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 65c | 19,892$12,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,988.86 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 43c | 15,000$6,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,450 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 24c | 12,040$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a7…8bcabacked No | 62c | 9,314$5,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked No | 57c | 8,709$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,744.86 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +7.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 41c | 8,339$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 77c | 8,219$6,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.06 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…61a4backed Yes | 31c | 8,105$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 19c | 7,839$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…3230backed Yes | 12c | 7,491$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…a1d2backed No | 58c | 7,395$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…371fbacked No | 60c | 7,069$4,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6be6backed No | 59c | 6,722$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked Yes | 22c | 6,526$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 17c | 5,985$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.72 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 63c | 4,797$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 4,243$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.57 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 70c | 4,232$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.47 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…dd96backed Yes | 35c | 3,527$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…fa14backed Yes | 28c | 3,500$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 27c | 3,443$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.81 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 23c | 3,348$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 49c | 3,135$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.12 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 34c | 3,085$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 77c | 3,054$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.5 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 32c | 2,996$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…3831backed Yes | 37c | 2,959$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 2,786$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.51 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed No | 43c | 2,738$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,706$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 59c | 2,567$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…678ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,553$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…6839backed Yes | 42c | 2,314$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 60c | 2,251$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.13 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…8279backed Yes | 8c | 2,227$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 65c | 2,123$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.94 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 2,103$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 32c | 2,080$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…438bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,000$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…552cbacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…51a4backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed Yes | 34c | 1,907$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked No | 74c | 1,861$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,787$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.69 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 72c | 1,727$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…587ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,617$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 33c | 1,609$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.69 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 33c | 1,510$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.42 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…a7b3backed No | 50c | 1,495$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 28c | 1,490$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…efc9backed No | 44c | 1,404$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…c686backed Yes | 36c | 1,392$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 11c | 1,352$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…8b29backed Yes | 15c | 1,344$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 1,322$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 34c | 1,300$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,237$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.35 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 67c | 1,228$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.92 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 22c | 1,207$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 61c | 1,119$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.98 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…faf4backed Yes | 38c | 1,096$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked No | 48c | 1,094$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.03 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,088$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 32c | 1,079$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.25 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,059$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,055$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.08 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 40c | 1,035$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…24cbbacked No | 75c | 1,025$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 41c | 1,008$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.76 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…bdd5backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…6878backed No | 69c | 949.99$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 39c | 891.28$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 889.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 68c | 882.7$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.63 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 37c | 829.06$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 4c | 818.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked No | 59c | 809.63$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 784.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 754.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ec…bfdebacked Yes | 54c | 749.37$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 68c | 746.11$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 38c | 725.09$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 32c | 724.66$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 37c | 721.61$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 21c | 712.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 710.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 42c | 701.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.61 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 44c | 699.65$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.06 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked Yes | 11c | 695.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 36c | 648.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Yes | 46c | 646.89$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 646.17$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.45 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ef…3c93backed Yes | 34c | 627.97$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…74cfbacked No | 63c | 623.96$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.