TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c8,223$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.72061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c3,213$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.637663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes3c3,082$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6780%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31c8…678ebacked Yes3c3,060$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb465…0d8dbacked Yes5c3,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes12c2,640$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.212560%15 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd585…b1b9backed Yes6c2,500$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.82846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+456.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes5c2,270$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.493636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes24c2,159$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+93.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c3d…f757backed Yes8c2,000$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb09d…3831backed Yes10c1,935$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf97e…0034backed Yes5c1,712$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.881369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1b38…12d8backed Yes3c1,680$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3600…036fbacked Yes3c1,609$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace3…ccf6backed Yes3c1,579$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,514$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.852442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c1,430$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.781541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5da…61a4backed Yes11c1,387$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…cfd8backed Yes6c1,371$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.63825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes5c1,348$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.06254%1 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-93.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed Yes32c1,238$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes7c1,054$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.768733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes10c1,050$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.752268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes14c985.91$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.028521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b0e…8884backed Yes9c944$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.45966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…efbebacked Yes13c799.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.82429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed No76c793.59$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.983938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes18c754.96$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.876114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0d…db1dbacked Yes16c729.64$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c722.34$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.832541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes13c713.48$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.694729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd834…ac45backed Yes9c666.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55c2…a8c7backed No79c619.31$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.721513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-79.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes15c600.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba9…3f8bbacked Yes11c516$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51e…43e8backed Yes9c449.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes8c435$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes3c413.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c406.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d34…47c8backed Yes7c402$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.131631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e1…c580backed Yes4c399.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes8c384.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.642536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…d2eabacked Yes8c369.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes9c320$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.261735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes5c292.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15553.6%2 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes14c285$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes8c271.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes10c266$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.62010%2 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-84.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c25…bac2backed Yes10c237.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c230.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.583495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes12c230.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6114335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes11c217.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.258154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes10c208.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.765650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…5568backed Yes11c204.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c200$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda85…bd68backed Yes19c190$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.58862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+125.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes6c189.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.273119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c188.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes7c185.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.275427.8%15 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed Yes12c167.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes11c162.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e39…f0fcbacked Yes13c160$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc762…2ce4backed Yes10c154.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+100.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes9c150.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54296.9%2 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62f8…c30fbacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes10c127.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.173716.2%6 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7a…73ddbacked Yes17c125.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa792…375dbacked Yes17c122.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c121.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6135712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3490…70fabacked Yes17c121.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a12…114ebacked Yes17c120.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…9ad4backed Yes17c119.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1f…aea2backed Yes17c119.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0310…2c31backed Yes17c118.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209a…7b38backed Yes17c118.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b3…416dbacked Yes17c117.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6b…b65ebacked Yes17c117.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc881…f8acbacked Yes13c110.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9634…aae2backed Yes15c101.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363f…e411backed Yes10c100.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f90…a2a3backed No80c97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a5…9158backed No80c95.42$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…8266backed No80c94.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5b…5347backed No80c94.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef4…5720backed No80c93.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…f599backed No80c87.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…c0cdbacked No80c86.15$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x301a…c2a0backed No80c84.95$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2653…fe5abacked No80c82.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9577…4eacbacked No80c80.67$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…2b8bbacked No75c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes20c61.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.288643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No45c38.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1325422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38dd…bb12backed No75c26.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked No66c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.