Token Launches · resolved market
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x878e3ae35633f0ae769971fcf78817a30cac68a668f31fadf3394be2dd253ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,296$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,213$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,614$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 8c | 3,316$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,533$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…8992backed Yes | 8c | 2,360$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…61a4backed Yes | 17c | 2,012$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 8c | 1,737$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3677…a807backed No | 78c | 1,709$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 17c | 1,700$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 76c | 1,686$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.72 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd415…710fbacked No | 79c | 1,622$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 15c | 1,610$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…3831backed Yes | 18c | 1,582$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,476$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 18c | 1,359$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…8c4ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,115$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…dd96backed Yes | 16c | 1,113$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 17c | 1,104$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 991.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 80c | 958.94$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.79 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 33c | 910.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…1a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 843.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes | 3c | 805.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…be60backed Yes | 3c | 796.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked No | 78c | 755.73$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +7.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 2c | 640$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…cfd8backed Yes | 23c | 576.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 17c | 574.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 31c | 538.05$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…8c19backed Yes | 4c | 515.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 21c | 506.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…acbbbacked Yes | 20c | 500.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa16…8bcfbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…6350backed Yes | 23c | 407.61$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0e…8884backed Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…a781backed Yes | 28c | 397.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 65c | 380.66$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 363.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…43e8backed Yes | 17c | 351.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 339.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…41a6backed Yes | 22c | 334.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 6c | 329.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…dc55backed No | 78c | 320.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…7b88backed Yes | 18c | 317.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 317.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 16c | 316.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked No | 78c | 290.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…2ecfbacked No | 72c | 273.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 243.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 79c | 241.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 8c | 229.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 21c | 224.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc881…f8acbacked Yes | 32c | 223.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked No | 78c | 217.33$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes | 17c | 211.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 17c | 204$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…8051backed Yes | 14c | 196.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 195.68$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed No | 56c | 190.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed Yes | 17c | 188.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…007ebacked Yes | 21c | 163.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 22c | 162$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…c30fbacked Yes | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 19c | 149.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 78c | 142.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…b140backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…f0fcbacked Yes | 20c | 141.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…cc6bbacked Yes | 21c | 140.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 75c | 137.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Yes | 26c | 136.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc52…6bcfbacked Yes | 15c | 134.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f757backed Yes | 12c | 129.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 77c | 123.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Yes | 16c | 121.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…3b5abacked Yes | 19c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 12c | 119.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 68c | 116.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…1570backed Yes | 19c | 112.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…7168backed No | 56c | 106.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…5568backed Yes | 20c | 102.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…47c8backed Yes | 12c | 100.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…2ce4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 14c | 91.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…82c5backed Yes | 14c | 85.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 78c | 66.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…25d8backed Yes | 37c | 57.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.