TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$572,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$603,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $572,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 532 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1635…5624backed No30c42,811$12,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,994.135642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb705…51a4backed No38c35,219$13,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,387.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0c…749bbacked Yes47c28,500$13,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,009.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ad…18f4backed No70c25,207$17,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,589.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf97e…0034backed Yes37c15,648$5,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,865.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed No36c14,482$5,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,159.843938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9c…4516backed No9c12,464$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes65c10,942$7,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,795.092560%15 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd983…3230backed Yes33c10,555$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,115.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes59c10,249$6,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.512352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3421…6e36backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No57c8,754$4,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.2117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9701…dd5fbacked Yes62c7,828$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fdf…9d95backed Yes71c6,497$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.412030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No68c6,000$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,104.9815941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No13c5,438$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed Yes62c5,294$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.342552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked No14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf04e…8a94backed Yes79c4,211$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked No71c4,094$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.281850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No56c4,033$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.946940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes61c4,008$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.37650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1084…d520backed Yes50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0005538.2%21 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe79a…80c8backed No71c4,000$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf377…3e60backed Yes29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes62c3,920$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.662744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2d…84e6backed No45c3,736$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6757240.3%29 W · 43 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes28c3,616$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.063630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…3218backed No55c3,400$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.272665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+268.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,176$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.672061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606e…f3bebacked No42c3,023$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed No13c3,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a8…efc9backed No15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b0…dd96backed Yes65c2,671$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5da…61a4backed Yes40c2,654$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b6…302fbacked Yes63c2,646$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26ac…94c1backed Yes30c2,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7501100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No50c2,500$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.9913131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c3d…f757backed Yes56c2,439$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x850b…be60backed No7c2,390$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd494…a5cabacked No13c2,200$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c2,193$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.547663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes62c2,131$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.88521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa452…c920backed Yes29c2,100$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed Yes48c2,068$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…f421backed No6c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No71c1,990$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.979747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes78c1,965$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.68154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x841f…806bbacked Yes37c1,944$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.653636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes57c1,943$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.163636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbf…6c43backed No47c1,903$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.174942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x867c…7419backed Yes29c1,900$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked No24c1,893$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502450%12 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes35c1,887$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.498733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No19c1,846$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.562722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…9694backed Yes74c1,788$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No65c1,751$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.862240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb06…a69dbacked No17c1,699$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed No6c1,602$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.252268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xfc93…8b29backed Yes38c1,595$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.71850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb546…33e2backed Yes44c1,560$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3742…b362backed No60c1,514$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239b…a09ebacked Yes30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa16…8bcfbacked No12c1,437$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes71c1,431$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked No14c1,426$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.85812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c1,386$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c0…38bcbacked Yes78c1,381$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6009…acf9backed No38c1,308$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed Yes76c1,289$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efa…9839backed Yes23c1,268$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.29633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd043…9ce2backed Yes71c1,215$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f3…32c0backed No9c1,214$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes45c1,213$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.621145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+93.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No54c1,188$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.7612840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No5c1,170$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.699920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes29c1,169$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+135.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4246…3759backed No31c1,168$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked No6c1,150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No19c1,140$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0319336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Yes52c1,140$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.87041.4%29 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes12c1,100$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.025320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c1,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No53c1,074$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.194938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4753…968abacked No20c1,062$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc60…85c9backed No49c1,027$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6505846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34b0…3c56backed Yes26c1,000$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+116%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45f1…5682backed Yes18c1,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3103119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa179…9629backed Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+272.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0020…39eebacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed Yes21c999.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.996934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d7…0f30backed No5c964.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a98…3113backed Yes44c944.1$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3771…54b3backed No10c920$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f88…7e43backed Yes78c920$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc993…7bd9backed No13c915.08$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.96520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No13c867.54$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.038134.6%28 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.