Token Launches · resolved market
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eed9108ccc497e68b9006eb72b4d20d22748c7100d4a1a9c6e3b2812ad80ced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 10c | 10,504$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 77c | 6,297$4,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.1 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…3831backed Yes | 19c | 5,519$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 74c | 5,329$3,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 5c | 4,957$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 19c | 4,408$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…8992backed Yes | 26c | 2,881$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ec…bfdebacked Yes | 42c | 2,396$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked No | 64c | 2,331$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.08 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked No | 70c | 2,250$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.14 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +7.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…57e1backed Yes | 23c | 2,105$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 19c | 2,057$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked No | 77c | 2,050$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…916ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,954$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…94edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,880$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,731$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…efc9backed No | 54c | 1,726$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,633$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 19c | 1,608$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 1,518$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.54 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 50c | 1,437$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 1c | 1,369$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,254$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 20c | 1,233$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 37c | 1,200$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…85bfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,170$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 59c | 1,154$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.3 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 21c | 1,151$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.83 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 72c | 1,115$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…8c19backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 39c | 1,088$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…497fbacked No | 62c | 1,053$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 32c | 1,026$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…d90abacked Yes | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 24c | 942.88$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.86 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes | 19c | 916.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…2c9dbacked No | 56c | 799.96$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +2,349.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 27c | 796.45$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 792$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 31c | 786.82$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…dd96backed Yes | 28c | 765.59$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 55c | 759.46$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…fa14backed Yes | 23c | 754.29$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…aee4backed Yes | 22c | 751.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 22c | 750$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked Yes | 7c | 744.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 690.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 13c | 650$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 15c | 604.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…8c2fbacked Yes | 61c | 578.73$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…09a9backed Yes | 67c | 578.36$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 24c | 561.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 4c | 544.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 44c | 529.8$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…365bbacked No | 69c | 519.92$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 510.87$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed No | 75c | 500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…c2f1backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 447.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 22c | 436.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…0041backed Yes | 25c | 429.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 401.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…6783backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…81c8backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 21c | 374.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…dc55backed No | 65c | 370.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.07 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes | 25c | 323.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…d39cbacked No | 62c | 315.21$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 25c | 308$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 12c | 306.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked No | 58c | 300$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…ee58backed Yes | 75c | 296.45$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…a7b3backed No | 72c | 295.25$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…856fbacked No | 64c | 292.19$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Yes | 40c | 291.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 66c | 290.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked No | 59c | 275.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 274$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813b…ca44backed Yes | 4c | 255.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728d…f7e6backed No | 80c | 254.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…3b21backed No | 78c | 243.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…f516backed Yes | 43c | 234.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…afccbacked Yes | 27c | 234.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 23c | 230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…68adbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d3…464cbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 16c | 225.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked No | 57c | 223$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?this page
- Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.