TailMyPicks
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes10c10,504$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.680%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1635…5624backed No77c6,297$4,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.15642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb09d…3831backed Yes19c5,519$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed No74c5,329$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.042458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes5c4,957$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+93.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes19c4,408$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.83636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes4c3,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc4…8992backed Yes26c2,881$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ec…bfdebacked Yes42c2,396$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked No64c2,331$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.083256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked No70c2,250$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.142475%18 W · 6 L+7.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+82.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa231…57e1backed Yes23c2,105$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+105.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc1c…3439backed Yes19c2,057$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.922540%10 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x535c…96babacked No77c2,050$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e3…916ebacked Yes46c1,954$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes2c1,880$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,731$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.747663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a8…efc9backed No54c1,726$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c1,633$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.911541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes19c1,608$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123360.6%20 W · 13 L+7.9wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes17c1,518$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.548733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes3c1,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked No50c1,437$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes1c1,369$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4313023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,254$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.792061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes20c1,233$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9619543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes37c1,200$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44414335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04e…85bfbacked Yes27c1,170$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No59c1,154$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.33666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes21c1,151$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.838154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed No72c1,115$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.693938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969e…8c19backed Yes2c1,093$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No39c1,088$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…497fbacked No62c1,053$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No32c1,026$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802524%6 W · 19 L-6.1wins-0.24per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5d82…d90abacked Yes24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-78%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes24c942.88$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.862268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes19c916.66$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaae3…2c9dbacked No56c799.96$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.981275%9 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+2,349.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes27c796.45$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.728521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c792$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.742442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes31c786.82$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2444729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b0…dd96backed Yes28c765.59$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No55c759.46$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.7610336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9786…fa14backed Yes23c754.29$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b2b…aee4backed Yes22c751.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087b…713ebacked Yes22c750$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7976…f3dcbacked Yes7c744.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c690.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.712541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes13c650$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.852626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes15c604.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4411421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d2…8c2fbacked Yes61c578.73$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba88…09a9backed Yes67c578.36$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked Yes24c561.79$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.377418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8004…cd61backed Yes4c544.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+55.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed Yes44c529.8$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.346114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec63…365bbacked No69c519.92$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No77c510.87$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.413246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58c…0a81backed No75c500$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed No55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f06…c2f1backed Yes4c499.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes23c450$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.52416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick31cpaid+104%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c447.26$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes22c436.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.081540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+74.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x125d…0041backed Yes25c429.3$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c401.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8919336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57b…6783backed Yes6c400$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…81c8backed No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa133…b362backed Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9613422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes21c374.19$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.118440.5%34 W · 50 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf363…dc55backed No65c370.19$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.071283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes25c323.77$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f93…d39cbacked No62c315.21$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes25c308$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes12c306.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.791442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes21c300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624755.3%26 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x823d…2db3backed No63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked No58c300$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.962450%12 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4418…ee58backed Yes75c296.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab4…a7b3backed No72c295.25$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf709…856fbacked No64c292.19$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked Yes40c291.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e81…864bbacked No66c290.44$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…5cdebacked No59c275.45$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.93650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c274$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x813b…ca44backed Yes4c255.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x728d…f7e6backed No80c254.57$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes28c250$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0069…3b21backed No78c243.06$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fe…f516backed Yes43c234.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd76…afccbacked Yes27c234.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes23c230$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.92152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be0…68adbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+97.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9d3…464cbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1084…d520backed Yes16c225.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.425538.2%21 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4b…43dcbacked No57c223$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.051428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes33c220$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.