TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc65f…6bf1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT2766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Belal Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Farés Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bryce Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Zhang Mingyang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Kai Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.84
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perrybacked Perry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Arnold Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Modestas Bukauskas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$13.33
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Malcolm Wellmaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Khaos Williams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$46.15
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Jacqueline Cavalcanti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tommy Gantt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$36.77
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Nicolle Caliari · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Alice Ardelean · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$21.38
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tatsuro Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$65.26
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Yaroslav Amosov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Jared Gordon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Jose Ochoa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Luke Riley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$14.1
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Caio Borralho · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+49.3%+$59.64
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Gregory Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41.69
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+152.1%+$18.1
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.78
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.