Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14257d7345521e2eaa70cccecc400f385feaf78c9a4c399b2f585607e7358726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 1c | 826.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 726.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 693$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 47c | 279.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 65c | 242.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 53c | 237.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 179.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 79c | 168.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 49c | 147.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…15d5backed Yes | 51c | 143.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 40c | 111.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 28c | 105.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 77c | 102.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…ea32backed Yes | 37c | 96.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 88.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 65c | 77.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 53c | 75.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 75.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 49c | 75.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 72.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 70.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 68.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 60.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 56.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 51.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 49.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 66c | 49.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…c4babacked Yes | 43c | 45.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 45c | 44.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 58c | 43.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 37.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked No | 50c | 36.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 35.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 34.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 54c | 33.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 31.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 61c | 29.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…32fabacked No | 51c | 27.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 60c | 27.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…cdf5backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 24.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 68c | 23.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.