Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc478ac6981f188eb53e052b7a38bde80b2c2fa1a8766ec063eb5ae4a386a66a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,577$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.67 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 833.56$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 34c | 489.23$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 298.8$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 268.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 64c | 252.65$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 211.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 41c | 202.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 197.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 179.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 48c | 170.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 166.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 162.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 149.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 140.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 50c | 140.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 52c | 138.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 135.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 133.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 63c | 118.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 113$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 37c | 111.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 110.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62aa…8598backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…467fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 98.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 90.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 90.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 84.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 36c | 84.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 82.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 80.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 70.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 69.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 36c | 67.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 62.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 59.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 58c | 58.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 21c | 56.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 62c | 56.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 56.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 40c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 50.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 63c | 50.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 48.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed No | 70c | 47.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 47.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 37c | 44.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked No | 64c | 44.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Yes | 54c | 42.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 37c | 42.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 42.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 43c | 41.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 28c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 40.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 43c | 39.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 64c | 38.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…c001backed Yes | 39c | 38.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 37.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 36.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 36.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 34.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…dad2backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 47c | 28.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 63c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 59c | 25.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.