TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c2,577$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.674,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c833.56$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.671,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes34c489.23$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c298.8$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c268.51$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.023,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No64c252.65$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.72,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c211.78$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes41c202.69$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c197.54$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.382,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb2…0c7abacked No52c192$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+142.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c179.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes48c170.04$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1717536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes45c166.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c162.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.962,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c149.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No66c140.41$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes50c140.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.457832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes52c138.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.173927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No64c135.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c133.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed No63c118.47$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8316116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c113$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes37c111.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1116934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No73c110.04$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5725038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62aa…8598backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9b…467fbacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No66c98.25$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.221,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c90.84$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No51c90.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.898,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c84.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.573,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x591c…619fbacked Yes36c84.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes42c82.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.481,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c80.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No63c70.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c69.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.162,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes36c67.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2422125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes45c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c62.94$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.734,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No63c59.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No58c58.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6411459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes21c56.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No62c56.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.475752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c56.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.393,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes50c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4581…91f9backed No52c52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.164146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes40c51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No72c50.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No63c50.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes37c48.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.822,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617c…a1b6backed No70c47.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes42c47.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes43c46.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3288…b8cebacked Yes37c44.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.657728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked No64c44.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0610633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No50c43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c42.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.012,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c92…7438backed Yes54c42.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes37c42.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.756643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No53c42.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes43c41.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes28c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6820230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No61c40.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2921…1706backed Yes43c39.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.152450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No64c38.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8411965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2510…c001backed Yes39c38.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c37.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No60c36.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No66c36.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.430168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No63c34.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.641,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No61c33.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9a…dad2backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc65f…6bf1backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.653148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes41c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8924053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No44c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.241,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes47c28.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes36c28.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3511164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No63c28.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.517869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No73c27.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.511,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc857…7c22backed No59c25.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.436262.9%39 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…c0a7backed No62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.122540%10 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0eb…9b18backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.444273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No64c23.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.431,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No67c22.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.882,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No66c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.099361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No76c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.620852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b6b…280bbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.734264.3%27 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.