Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a524c531d67ad251daa392ab69d9bdb4e7332e5246c88d7ad6751dbdc101dc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes | 2c | 71,999$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,905$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 2,317$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,123$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked Yes | 14c | 697.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 3c | 690.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 549.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 407.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 405.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 251.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed Yes | 6c | 187.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 8c | 156.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 155.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 132.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 124.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 111.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 33c | 110.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 70c | 103.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 103.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10c…c0d8backed Yes | 18c | 91.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 18c | 71.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 61c | 59.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 48.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 70c | 37.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 60c | 34.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 36c | 34.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 64c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…7266backed No | 62c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.