TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf787…1b63backed Yes54c953.18$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.1543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No61c593.6$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.611,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No34c552.21$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes56c507.9$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c507.14$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes56c495.82$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.974,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No19c493.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.423,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes40c413.79$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.7931943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c396.2$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.11,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes49c370.92$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c298.8$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.715,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes46c267.55$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.021,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c197.01$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes40c194.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No57c184.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.482,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa6…49a1backed No74c174.31$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.044067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617c…a1b6backed No23c171.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.111729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes30c170.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12017536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No66c168.42$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.724,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No17c150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.91,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c146.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.618,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No39c140.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.621,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c135.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes66c132.78$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes27c131.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.017832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No57c130.29$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.31,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes57c126.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9716934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb2…0c7abacked No79c126.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+142.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes17c125.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9712228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No48c121.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3371159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes27c115.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3625560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No37c111.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c105.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.547,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes26c102.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No51c101.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No43c101.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.834,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes35c100.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8525038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes36c98.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c98.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes53c95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes23c89.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.014,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No49c84.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.911,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes57c83.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.573435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.445,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes40c78.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7633535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…dcd2backed Yes30c74.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.222040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c73.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes56c71.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.864060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes41c68.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8415152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No66c68.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd834…1d87backed Yes29c68.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.377133.8%24 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No30c67.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.391,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes71c64.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.767949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes47c62.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2634651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c61.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.893,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c57.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.842,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No71c56.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes35c55.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.097126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c55.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c52.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.249,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes29c52.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.193,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No58c51.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7813755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.134,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.540739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes35c49.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c42.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.972,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad71…05cdbacked Yes36c42.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No75c42.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9611164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No50c42.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes66c41.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.07862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b6…94b8backed Yes30c41.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.756131.1%19 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No70c40.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.238961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes78c39.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.851,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No33c37.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No70c35.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8219059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes69c35.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes32c32.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0823241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4581…91f9backed No71c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.754146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes63c31.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.524156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af1…b520backed Yes68c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.01560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No67c29.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes40c29.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.884845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No74c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No51c28.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.429262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.524,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd2…a3b9backed Yes69c27.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes61c26.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2910463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes57c23.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.274856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.