TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes55c2,068$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.4631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No47c1,787$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.9727841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes64c1,482$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.8943238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes72c1,253$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.042,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No49c797.64$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.021,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No22c573.12$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4253525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No12c559.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6584930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No30c533.68$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1614236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No34c524.76$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c95…8188backed No18c499.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.779122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c450.36$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.691,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes64c386.53$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes58c384.4$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c368.19$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No57c349.59$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes61c340.14$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.584,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No23c298.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.593,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No30c292.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.511,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes45c292.48$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc64…37f0backed Yes47c285.22$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.223540%14 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c277.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.073,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes50c267.94$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9431943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes56c239.49$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2330144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c231.2$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.028,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c222.03$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6765749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c213.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74fe…68b5backed No50c208.26$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes43c208.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.956264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No50c206.68$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7114359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No42c197$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.935,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked No52c190.42$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.564738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No11c181.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed No55c181.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No23c177.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.361,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes73c174.58$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.587949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No58c171.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes45c163.74$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6116116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked No25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3715717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes45c141.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.234,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c135.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No23c130$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No28c121.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes41c119.9$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No33c101.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2871159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked Yes69c101$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c100.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6e72…c64ebacked No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3489…7fffbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0651…b4e6backed Yes66c96.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.76757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No30c95.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked No16c86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.762321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcc2…dcdebacked Yes44c85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No28c84.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.872,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No43c82.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No31c81.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.331921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No34c75.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.191,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No30c66.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c65.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.521,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes61c64.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No75c63.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c60.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.721,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dfd…e9b6backed Yes22c59.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+247.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No18c58.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.482,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No22c57.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.144323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1511729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes72c53.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9930442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No36c53.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No60c51.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes76c51.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No20c50.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.012,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2102…7c3bbacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.082825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8523241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No65c49.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No37c49.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.352,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x222a…d5afbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.39742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes60c47.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.13435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No59c46.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.261,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No28c45.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes30c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes43c44.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.619744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe217…7058backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes67c43.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2611343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No30c42.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.494761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.