Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963353d1ee2e776940769f7476804f0fba4046bca228b69cf40e4af95256c5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,068$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.46 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 47c | 1,787$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.97 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 64c | 1,482$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,253$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 797.64$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 573.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 12c | 559.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 30c | 533.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 524.76$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed No | 18c | 499.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 450.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 64c | 386.53$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 58c | 384.4$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 368.19$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 349.59$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 340.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 23c | 298.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 292.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 292.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 47c | 285.22$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 277.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 50c | 267.94$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 56c | 239.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 231.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 222.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 213.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…68b5backed No | 50c | 208.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 43c | 208.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 50c | 206.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 197$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked No | 52c | 190.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 11c | 181.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 55c | 181.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 177.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 73c | 174.58$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 58c | 171.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 45c | 163.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 141.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 135.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 28c | 121.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 119.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 33c | 101.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 69c | 101$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 100.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…c64ebacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…b4e6backed Yes | 66c | 96.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…dcdebacked Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 84.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 82.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 31c | 81.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 75.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 30c | 66.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 65.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes | 61c | 64.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 63.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 60.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…e9b6backed Yes | 22c | 59.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +247.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 58.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 72c | 53.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 53.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 60c | 51.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 76c | 51.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 20c | 50.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…7c3bbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 49.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 60c | 47.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 46.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 28c | 45.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 43c | 44.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 67c | 43.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 30c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.