TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,605

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes1c921.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes44c753.73$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5943238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c422.65$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.64,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes19c335.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.641,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes13c320.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes26c292.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1814236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No72c287.77$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.391,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c283.97$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes40c249.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes35c229.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes41c219.56$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes10c218.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fe…68b5backed No59c206.91$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.911414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c203.2$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c197$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes39c188.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.56264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c186.71$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.991,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c162.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No66c154.41$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5211164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No61c150$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c139.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes48c123.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No75c118$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.961,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked No76c117.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…3257backed No75c101.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.772540%10 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7131124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes47c96.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.637355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No66c95.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes49c94.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No68c93.39$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.754,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c86.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes43c85.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes28c83.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No64c77.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes34c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c74.16$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.842,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No73c73.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No72c72.22$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.581,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes27c71.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.352,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No49c69.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.71,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes35c69.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes23c68.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes29c65.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes17c63.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed Yes32c63.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c63.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c61.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.381,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.534,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes45c59.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6415152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes31c59.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No75c57.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.322,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No70c56.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1739968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x291d…8e36backed Yes27c55.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.07205%1 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick23cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c53.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c51.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa388…d4adbacked Yes51c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes24c50.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e72…c64ebacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x717f…3fb1backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes24c49.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9724434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…cbbcbacked Yes40c49.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No62c49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf4…6741backed No67c47.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.554100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes36c46.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.774738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No45c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfd…e9b6backed Yes29c44.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+247.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No78c44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.528456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c40.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.662,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.86448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No68c39.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6850373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…6083backed No49c36.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.734459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No78c35.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.764761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No71c35.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.024344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9c…5da9backed No72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82bb…7e81backed No75c33.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.391566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c32.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No69c32.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes43c31.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes33c30.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0417536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes34c29.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No72c29.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.165671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes40c28.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.433246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d0…1845backed No70c28.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.312161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No44c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.561,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No62c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No67c24.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.249362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.