TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tommy Ganttof Tommy Gantt, Artur Minev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,146,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,480,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,146,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Tommy Gantt64c519,843$330,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189,365.827454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Artur Minev36c200,000$72,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,999.9919154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Artur Minev36c112,955$40,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,663.689240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Artur Minev37c73,353$27,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,137.3310035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked Artur Minev37c31,328$11,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,591.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Artur Minev37c30,888$11,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,428.563545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Artur Minev38c30,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,4002441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Artur Minev36c27,500$9,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,97537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Artur Minev37c19,906$7,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,365.1416244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Artur Minev37c13,500$4,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9955632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Tommy Gantt63c11,119$7,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.844957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Tommy Gantt61c6,546$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.0310255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x538a…0823backed Artur Minev37c5,556$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa167…da89backed Artur Minev40c5,157$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Artur Minev37c4,680$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Tommy Gantt62c4,100$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.9115641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Artur Minev38c3,422$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Tommy Gantt62c3,383$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.357159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Tommy Gantt63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.996142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Artur Minev37c2,972$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Tommy Gantt74c2,402$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Artur Minev21c2,069$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9333132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Artur Minev37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Tommy Gantt63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7408851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Tommy Gantt62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9722661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Artur Minev37c1,894$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70826140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Artur Minev36c1,813$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6551145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Tommy Gantt68c1,663$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5321050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tommy Gantt62c1,624$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.1230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Tommy Gantt63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.32646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tommy Gantt61c1,494$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.2441754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Tommy Gantt63c1,438$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.068940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Tommy Gantt63c1,294$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.375461.1%33 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tommy Gantt66c1,244$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.9315939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Artur Minev38c1,223$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7131855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Artur Minev32c1,200$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38426352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Tommy Gantt71c1,101$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9416156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Artur Minev35c1,057$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8516746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Artur Minev38c1,056$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.433748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Tommy Gantt64c1,030$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.88851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Artur Minev27c908.69$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7135648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Artur Minev36c841.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013832.6%45 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Tommy Gantt63c836.58$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.537068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Tommy Gantt61c828.13$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.9714551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Tommy Gantt62c799.99$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30425251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tommy Gantt65c785$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7515933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Artur Minev10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Artur Minev38c700$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26636655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Tommy Gantt62c699.98$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.998461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Artur Minev33c699.98$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1912845.3%58 W · 70 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Tommy Gantt63c690.58$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.513053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x429e…41bdbacked Tommy Gantt62c674.94$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.481275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Artur Minev38c666$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Tommy Gantt62c665.94$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.064045%18 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe641…0f63backed Tommy Gantt77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.351560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Tommy Gantt61c645$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6511761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Tommy Gantt63c635.91$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.297647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Tommy Gantt64c625$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22518647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked Tommy Gantt64c614.89$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.363756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Tommy Gantt63c571.43$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0972…9d1ebacked Tommy Gantt63c558.73$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.733450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Artur Minev37c550$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.53759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Artur Minev38c522.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f9…ee6dbacked Artur Minev38c513.11$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Artur Minev39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Tommy Gantt64c505.45$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.964060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Tommy Gantt61c505$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.127263.9%46 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Artur Minev37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857460.8%45 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Artur Minev37c500$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1879961.6%61 W · 38 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Tommy Gantt63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Tommy Gantt63c500$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.66650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7bc…0f85backed Tommy Gantt62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1902277.3%17 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Tommy Gantt63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18535564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x840c…162abacked Artur Minev39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Artur Minev41c492.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1252…e6e0backed Tommy Gantt63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.191040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Artur Minev38c446.78$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.393650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Tommy Gantt61c439.35$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1411140.5%45 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Artur Minev38c405.66$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.151040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Artur Minev35c405.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8915444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Artur Minev32c402.13$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed Tommy Gantt63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1482462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcdf…8116backed Tommy Gantt65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Artur Minev37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1486732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Artur Minev36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Artur Minev37c399.96$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.691330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Artur Minev37c389.18$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Tommy Gantt63c367.11$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Artur Minev35c348.29$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Tommy Gantt63c336.54$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.528826.1%23 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Tommy Gantt63c333.33$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.331546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x719a…7b25backed Tommy Gantt63c320$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed Tommy Gantt63c317.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.31942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Tommy Gantt64c316.33$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.44643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…3c7abacked Artur Minev38c315.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Tommy Gantt64c312$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.321442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Tommy Gantt63c310$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.716543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Tommy Gantt64c310$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.61936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Tommy Gantt61c305$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.327859%46 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd296…084dbacked Artur Minev34c280$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962850%14 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.