UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8a6eb6027fc36c21216759e6fc8a337f117600f6b93d7044ab0b28de7766c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 1,200$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.23 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 56c | 304.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Over | 49c | 149.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…6a07backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 102.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 67.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed Over | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims)Tommy Gantt won
- Will Artur Minev win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.