Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a7cbb6c7bb2aa1c4041ba37fbaced3bc0b10f1370633d9f74a2da8c0c4e869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 1c | 2,779$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,269$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 19c | 1,178$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 810.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 28c | 715.14$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 11c | 713.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 609.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 542.7$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 524.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 500.68$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 493.14$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 75c | 431.41$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 403.06$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 38c | 399.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 366.8$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 344.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.32 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 44c | 343.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 342.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 63c | 319.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes | 43c | 310.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 307.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 38c | 249.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 230.59$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 221.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 220.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 7c | 196.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 194.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 53c | 189.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 58c | 179.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 171.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 37c | 170.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 50c | 160.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 30c | 159.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 159.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb716…1873backed Yes | 45c | 158.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 21c | 155$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 145.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 9c | 142.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 59c | 140.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…4726backed No | 74c | 136.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 136$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…a530backed Yes | 18c | 129.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 123.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 42c | 118.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 43c | 116.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 57c | 110.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 54c | 110.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 108.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 108.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 105.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 43c | 105.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 29c | 102.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 47c | 100.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 97.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 57c | 96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3963…6c32backed Yes | 56c | 90.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 23c | 88.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…b931backed Yes | 35c | 87.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 83.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 80.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…2bd9backed Yes | 37c | 80.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 80c | 77.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 37c | 76.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 74.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…467fbacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 59c | 69.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 49c | 69.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 25c | 67.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 57c | 67.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 57c | 66.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 66.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 29c | 66.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 47c | 65.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 62.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 48c | 61.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…bbf7backed Yes | 54c | 61.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…962cbacked No | 60c | 59.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 58.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…c001backed Yes | 30c | 57.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 36c | 56.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 54.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.