Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaea547f58564f040136ab8fedb40fc49b356c71c81ed4fe1f9fdfed6bf7e3f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 1c | 3,201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 2,140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 9c | 1,220$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 31c | 1,180$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.61 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 879.23$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 761.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 669$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 26c | 598.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 576.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 27c | 519.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 518.53$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 29c | 513.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 496.9$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 28c | 466.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked No | 77c | 465.73$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 75c | 450.09$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 435$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 400.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 343.93$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 327.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 325.67$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 29c | 314.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 313.02$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 34c | 312.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 31c | 306.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 71c | 302.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 282$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 5c | 274.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 268.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes | 29c | 268.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 22c | 253.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 23c | 250.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 7c | 249.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 233.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 14c | 224.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 210.74$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 11c | 197.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 182.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 177.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 30c | 176.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 172.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 165.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 163.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 22c | 159.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 26c | 156.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 156.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 41c | 155.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…8decbacked Yes | 32c | 151.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 25c | 149.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 35c | 148.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 148.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 18c | 143.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 45c | 141.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed Yes | 21c | 137.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 136.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 22c | 134.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked Yes | 23c | 129.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 120.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 25c | 116.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 112.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 36c | 112.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 19c | 110.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 20c | 107.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 106.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 34c | 104.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 29c | 102.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 76c | 100.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 98.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 27c | 96.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 25c | 94.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…1d77backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 91.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 80c | 90.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 89.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 88.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…7334backed Yes | 34c | 88.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 23c | 88.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 28c | 87.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 18c | 83.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 82.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…b931backed Yes | 25c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes | 22c | 78.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 26c | 75.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 42c | 72.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.