TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b72…a958backed Yes1c3,201$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes2c2,140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.331,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes9c1,220$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.629634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes31c1,180$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed Yes2c1,010$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c879.23$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.861,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c761.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c669$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes26c598.03$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9937942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes19c576.26$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.371,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes27c519.9$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.249341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c518.53$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.462,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes29c513.75$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.444129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No73c496.9$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes28c466.45$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5316724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6476…393ebacked No77c465.73$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.731181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No75c450.09$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9239966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c435$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes30c400.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No75c343.93$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes22c327.46$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c325.67$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes29c314.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No70c313.02$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0671159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes34c312.77$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes31c306.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.555648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No71c302.77$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4215669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c282$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.483,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes5c274.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.454233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes27c268.95$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes29c268.1$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.43825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes22c253.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes23c250.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.657628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes7c249.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1219217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes27c233.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.111,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes14c224.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6712228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No75c210.74$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.081,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes15c199.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes11c197.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.995812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes26c192.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010445.2%47 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No77c182.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No75c177.98$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes30c176.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.492128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c172.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c165.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.051,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c163.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.291,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes22c159.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes26c156.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0516836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c156.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.025,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes41c155.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6412941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe877…8decbacked Yes32c151.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes25c149.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.253815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes35c148.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.453740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No73c148.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.491,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes18c143.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes45c141.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6414932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc0…cc78backed Yes21c137.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.942245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c136.01$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes22c134.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c130.21$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.912,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked Yes23c129.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c120.52$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.422,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No74c117$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4250373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes25c116.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes43c112.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes36c112.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes19c110.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3412733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes20c107.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes29c106.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.363,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes34c104.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes29c102.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8e21backed No76c100.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.683562.9%22 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8cd…956bbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.751,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c98.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes26c96.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2227421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes27c96.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2622125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Yes25c94.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.217047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd046…1d77backed Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c91.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7f7d…06e3backed No80c90.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.263161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c89.09$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.581,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c88.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef7…7334backed Yes34c88.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes23c88.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes28c87.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes23c85.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes18c83.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.083938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c82.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.583,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ad7…b931backed Yes25c82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes22c78.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes26c75.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes42c72.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308218.3%15 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.