TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,695
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,695 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x157e…b995backed Yes1c1,774$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes14c1,176$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes2c1,001$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.632,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes4c832.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c623.62$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes14c599.98$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.111337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No80c500.07$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.372,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.215717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes28c399.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes19c395.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.11,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes16c387.46$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6360%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No78c351.32$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes25c347.02$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9814725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No77c343.69$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4765965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c321.27$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.273,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes9c313.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.941,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c281.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.951,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd248…5551backed No77c259.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.45977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes23c249.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3963…6c32backed Yes5c238.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6313…1db9backed Yes16c236.74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes25c209.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5214932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes24c199.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4812228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No80c182.95$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.212,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No78c169.64$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.881,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes21c160$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.898551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d89…e2f4backed Yes26c151.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No76c148.69$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes16c148.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8516724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c144.82$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.454,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c134.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…98d0backed Yes21c134.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes22c132.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0719217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes19c129.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes18c127.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes24c125.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.045812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa612…476abacked Yes17c121.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes16c118.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes15c113.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8815843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No76c111.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.625468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No76c108.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.391,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e6…ab8abacked Yes28c107.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c107.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ef…9840backed Yes28c107.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes22c99.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1510439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No79c96.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed Yes23c92.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c90.66$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes21c89.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8544536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes20c85.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.668036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes20c79.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.146719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6fb…59e6backed Yes25c79.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes21c74.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.625628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…2bd9backed Yes27c72.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3680%0 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes17c70.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0111515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c67.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes25c65.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes31c64.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No74c64.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.987150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes20c64.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes34c59.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes18c58.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8312733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes21c58.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3240025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes24c55.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.462638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c53.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.261,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes21c53.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes23c52.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.219139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No78c51.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1423668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No75c51.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8325466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.454748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes27c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad7…b931backed Yes25c49.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No76c45.52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9611164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes22c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0417310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No76c39.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes28c36.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9197…c318backed No78c33.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7497…d74dbacked No68c31.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.13850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No72c30.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.595666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No78c30.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7519052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.783250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…91cfbacked No73c27.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No77c26.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2121272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8cd…956bbacked No66c26.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.951030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No79c25.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3216863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No74c24.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3219353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c24.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.744,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c21.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.514,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No75c20.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0330565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a2…2c18backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.66663.6%42 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x599f…3317backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512578.4%98 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4125560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No76c17.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.224178%32 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No79c17.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5719057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No77c15.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4681756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c40…fcf2backed No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.517144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.