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UFC · resolved market

MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Perryof Diaz, Perry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$577,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Perry59c96,018$56,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,367.2319154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Diaz40c86,166$34,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,765.552548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Perry59c60,000$35,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,599.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b62…db9cbacked Diaz41c50,000$20,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+167.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Diaz41c31,339$12,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,846.8713039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked Perry61c16,409$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,409.071752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Perry61c15,000$9,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,849.9211554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Diaz36c12,975$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679.7933132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Perry60c11,679$7,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.543943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Diaz39c10,650$4,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,148.396650%33 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Diaz33c10,209$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,364.333839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933f…1540backed Diaz39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Perry60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Diaz32c6,839$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.1336048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Perry60c6,658$3,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Diaz40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.964151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Perry60c5,558$3,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.228849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Perry70c5,000$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…37cdbacked Diaz42c4,797$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…f93dbacked Diaz41c4,784$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Diaz26c4,677$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.622030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7310…8d54backed Diaz2c4,100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Perry58c3,954$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.522941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Perry60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.339164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Perry60c3,061$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.1211746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe964…03cbbacked Perry61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8668…ffb0backed Perry66c2,941$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa919…65fabacked Perry60c2,929$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.961442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Perry60c2,836$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.32576%19 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x293a…e786backed Diaz23c2,803$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…8052backed Diaz39c2,750$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Perry71c2,467$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.4227448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Perry60c2,424$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.652673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+45%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Perry61c2,346$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.5516846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Perry63c2,237$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.636745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Diaz37c2,162$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Perry63c2,066$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.2332545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Diaz41c2,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Diaz37c1,993$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.2414233.1%47 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Diaz23c1,921$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5513636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31c6…6657backed Diaz41c1,896$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7771216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad79…7abbbacked Perry61c1,873$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.17875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Diaz40c1,778$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Diaz39c1,730$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0f…3f10backed Perry60c1,643$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.052240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Diaz36c1,484$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Perry69c1,416$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.174045%18 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Perry74c1,331$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Perry60c1,322$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.721275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+79.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x483b…2fc8backed Perry63c1,274$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.522657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Perry60c1,251$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.5320837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Diaz41c1,214$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe641…0f63backed Perry60c1,163$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.091560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Perry59c1,153$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.94047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Perry72c1,132$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.5515933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Diaz29c1,109$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.0918032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Perry66c1,103$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.113244.7%59 W · 73 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Diaz39c1,028$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Diaz37c1,004$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.145950.8%30 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Perry58c1,001$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Perry60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Diaz39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39013735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Perry61c999.97$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.996750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc001…59a3backed Diaz41c986.84$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c8…d45dbacked Diaz41c975.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31d…68a0backed Perry72c971.38$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f03…ba1fbacked Diaz39c940$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0267backed Diaz39c923.94$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.344630.4%14 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff97…e7cabacked Perry77c916.02$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2211078.2%86 W · 24 L+15.6wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Diaz39c900$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da7…9272backed Diaz41c853.66$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Diaz37c836.01$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.328744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Perry66c832.1$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.693650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Diaz34c823.58$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.838553.2%205 W · 180 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa01b…bc1dbacked Perry61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590a…3699backed Perry61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Diaz33c804.28$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.415052%26 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Diaz38c800$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Perry63c794.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Diaz39c773.85$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.891154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Diaz40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f6…739abacked Diaz40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf05…9542backed Diaz41c720.49$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Diaz41c719.15$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8515549%76 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Diaz39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+178.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Diaz40c699.99$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Perry61c681.28$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.913041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22fa…2fe1backed Diaz40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Diaz36c609.92$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+129.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Perry62c561.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Perry63c516.51$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Diaz39c513$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0720933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…f36ebacked Perry64c501.13$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.76560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc8…535cbacked Diaz39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Diaz40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b06…6c73backed Perry60c497.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed Diaz40c493.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3fa…da93backed Diaz41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24b5…a92cbacked Diaz41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b5…68e1backed Perry63c475.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.391758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.