UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420d1dfff891306178873a0a226c360ce3c898159125203b7b3af8607c581e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tom Nolanof Farés Ziam, Tom Nolan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 35,114$9,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,098.16 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Farés Ziam | 11c | 22,543$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.16 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Tom Nolan | 49c | 22,303$10,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,375.12 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Farés Ziam | 74c | 20,000$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,800 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Farés Ziam | 75c | 18,845$14,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,095.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Farés Ziam | 53c | 11,256$5,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,923.67 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Farés Ziam | 29c | 9,864$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.18 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Tom Nolan | 76c | 8,308$6,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.99 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…c66cbacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 8,108$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4d…4db8backed Farés Ziam | 74c | 6,749$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 6,718$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,971.67 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Farés Ziam | 74c | 5,000$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,674.81 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Farés Ziam | 20c | 4,678$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.8 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 4,390$3,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.83 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed Farés Ziam | 75c | 3,516$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Farés Ziam | 71c | 3,488$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.62 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tom Nolan | 69c | 3,468$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.93 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Tom Nolan | 28c | 3,150$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.93 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tom Nolan | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.9 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tom Nolan | 25c | 2,640$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Tom Nolan | 41c | 2,619$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.3 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 2,298$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.95 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Farés Ziam | 28c | 2,021$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.3 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.92 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Farés Ziam | 74c | 1,897$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Farés Ziam | 28c | 1,669$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Tom Nolan | 27c | 1,644$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.44 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…3a5cbacked Tom Nolan | 66c | 1,405$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Farés Ziam | 70c | 1,400$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Farés Ziam | 28c | 1,386$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Tom Nolan | 28c | 1,386$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.25 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Farés Ziam | 55c | 1,365$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.87 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…891ebacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 1,291$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Farés Ziam | 72c | 1,289$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.13 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 1,250$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.99 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Farés Ziam | 72c | 1,183$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.62 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Farés Ziam | 73c | 1,176$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.18 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…5f4abacked Tom Nolan | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 1,094$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.87 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Tom Nolan | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Farés Ziam | 45c | 1,023$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Farés Ziam | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0f8fbacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9e27backed Farés Ziam | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Tom Nolan | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Tom Nolan | 26c | 999.95$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.97 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Tom Nolan | 30c | 992$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.2 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Tom Nolan | 26c | 887.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.11 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Farés Ziam | 27c | 883.75$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Tom Nolan | 35c | 857.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.43 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 838.97$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.45 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Farés Ziam | 57c | 829.25$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…916fbacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 827.95$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 800$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 776.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…ef53backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 764.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Farés Ziam | 46c | 734$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Tom Nolan | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Farés Ziam | 21c | 700$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Farés Ziam | 71c | 687.27$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.79 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Tom Nolan | 77c | 675$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Farés Ziam | 37c | 672.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.82 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 634.98$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.53 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…0933backed Tom Nolan | 75c | 629.78$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Tom Nolan | 38c | 621.59$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.57 | 265 | 52.1%138 W · 127 L | +23.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Tom Nolan | 27c | 615.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.41 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Farés Ziam | 52c | 615.59$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.07 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Farés Ziam | 31c | 614.78$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Tom Nolan | 33c | 614.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 611.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.82 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…e175backed Farés Ziam | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…ae3bbacked Farés Ziam | 74c | 592.55$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.92 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +5.5wins | +0.45per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.92 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Tom Nolan | 26c | 576$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Tom Nolan | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Farés Ziam | 72c | 555.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 550$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Tom Nolan | 28c | 549.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…a5d7backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 547.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Tom Nolan | 27c | 542.3$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.88 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…4865backed Tom Nolan | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.71 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…3bb2backed Tom Nolan | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Tom Nolan | 40c | 534.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.29 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed Farés Ziam | 75c | 527.6$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.7 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…36f4backed Tom Nolan | 29c | 514.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.85 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Farés Ziam | 73c | 509.4$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.86 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Farés Ziam | 47c | 506.82$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.74 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…acebbacked Farés Ziam | 35c | 500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Tom Nolan | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Tom Nolan | 27c | 499.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.98 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Tom Nolan | 28c | 499.3$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…e06abacked Tom Nolan | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Tom Nolan | 78c | 484.69$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Tom Nolan | 28c | 470.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Farés Ziam | 23c | 470$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Tom Nolan | 64c | 437.06$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Farés Ziam | 39c | 428$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Farés Ziam win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.