UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c0b68d8358e28458be4eeb9c337e329ae14774ce9b381ca930580ef707ed6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Yes | 50c | 2,519$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.44 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 44c | 1,946$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.17 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 50c | 1,550$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 44c | 804.1$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.07 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 507.83$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed No | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed No | 53c | 446.38$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 50c | 392.26$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 47c | 339.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 33c | 313.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea16…4bd8backed No | 55c | 269.09$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 199.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 55c | 181.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked No | 55c | 165$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 55c | 100.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0153…9818backed No | 50c | 68.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…5bc3backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ab…571dbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e85…9ab6backed Yes | 51c | 42.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked No | 50c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670a…f141backed Yes | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)Tom Nolan won
- Will Farés Ziam win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.