TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x676b…5bc3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Champions League at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT3959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Sean O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$124.95
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Josh Hokit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$124.5
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gabriel Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$128.31
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brendan Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,061Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+61.2%+$648.8
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tom Nolan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$18.9
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.83
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bryce Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$18.74
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Iwo Baraniewski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$132.91
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Alessandro Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+25%+$162.5
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Marcus McGhee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$786Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$221.69
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Zhang Mingyang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tallison Teixeira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Kai Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$116.67
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Jose Henrique · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$64
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Jingnan Xiong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Loma Lookboonmee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Rodrigo Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$99
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Caranobacked Carano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Modestas Bukauskas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$117.35
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Malcolm Wellmaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$671
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Firebacked Supah Hot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$792Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$298.68
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Menery · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$662Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+56.3%+$372.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.