UFC · resolved market
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a0ab74354051580ab879de182bb968baf88ad51a5ebb3c5360dd359fc677a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 44c | 1,530$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.03 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes | 56c | 855.2$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.2 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 66c | 657.77$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 43c | 579.24$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 42c | 279.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 40c | 195.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…5bc3backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Yes | 55c | 72.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…eeabbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 78c | 68.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed Yes | 58c | 46.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…18d0backed Yes | 72c | 41.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…c234backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…b7edbacked Yes | 56c | 33.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Iwo Baraniewski won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.