TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Angela Hillof Angela Hill, Jingnan Xiong
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Jingnan Xiong64c67,253$43,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,012.513452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Angela Hill36c44,479$15,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,516.2129133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Angela Hill36c26,976$9,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,192.076132.8%20 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Jingnan Xiong63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.981315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Angela Hill36c7,601$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,864.3912541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Jingnan Xiong63c7,500$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Angela Hill37c6,623$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,172.454447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Angela Hill36c5,000$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.3911746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Angela Hill37c4,035$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,541.883754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Angela Hill47c3,824$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.415273.1%38 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+40.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Angela Hill36c3,562$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.324233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Angela Hill37c3,500$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2204035%14 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Jingnan Xiong64c3,325$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.998360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Jingnan Xiong64c3,287$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.081952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Angela Hill36c2,987$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.5310255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa160…442bbacked Angela Hill37c2,926$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.523145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Angela Hill37c2,800$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.254721.3%10 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Jingnan Xiong47c2,797$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.95446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b12…d642backed Jingnan Xiong52c2,745$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.525162.7%32 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb83…9772backed Angela Hill37c2,705$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Angela Hill56c2,493$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.5415939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Jingnan Xiong65c2,475$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.279164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Jingnan Xiong65c2,405$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.454443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Angela Hill73c2,048$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Jingnan Xiong65c2,005$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.893948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Angela Hill36c1,505$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.5716746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Angela Hill38c1,473$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.9935648.6%173 W · 183 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Angela Hill55c1,430$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.653458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Jingnan Xiong64c1,343$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86011364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Angela Hill47c1,263$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.2827448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc149…dc81backed Jingnan Xiong8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6575backed Jingnan Xiong64c1,250$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Jingnan Xiong64c1,100$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7053154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Angela Hill36c1,044$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.783743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x826e…2bebbacked Jingnan Xiong63c1,011$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Angela Hill36c1,005$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.193759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Jingnan Xiong63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.0526743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Jingnan Xiong64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64011057.3%63 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Angela Hill37c1,000$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6359949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Angela Hill35c999.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9841754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Jingnan Xiong63c991.25$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.487452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Jingnan Xiong64c983.08$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.493444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Angela Hill35c945.41$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Angela Hill37c936.81$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.142025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Jingnan Xiong62c887.89$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.497159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Jingnan Xiong63c863$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Jingnan Xiong63c794$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Angela Hill38c779.38$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.213438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Angela Hill37c770.76$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.7613647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b02…0933backed Angela Hill64c757.05$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Angela Hill37c699.95$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9730039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Angela Hill52c698.3$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.1622438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Jingnan Xiong65c692.85$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010253.9%55 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Jingnan Xiong26c682$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.322646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842e…6ff9backed Jingnan Xiong63c600$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Jingnan Xiong64c589.06$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37726140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Angela Hill37c589$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.812451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Angela Hill36c555.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.9813832.6%45 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Angela Hill36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5612557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Angela Hill37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5415048.7%73 W · 77 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Angela Hill35c535.16$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.0790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Jingnan Xiong63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Jingnan Xiong65c482.73$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.382544%11 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Jingnan Xiong64c482.25$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Jingnan Xiong63c480$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.416543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Jingnan Xiong65c461.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Angela Hill36c460.74$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0518644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jingnan Xiong13c436.24$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Jingnan Xiong63c427.45$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.296443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Angela Hill41c378.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.633237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Angela Hill38c351.77$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9611942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Angela Hill35c347.85$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.17263.9%46 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Jingnan Xiong50c337.5$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.58259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46d1…8d0ebacked Angela Hill30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Angela Hill75c333.29$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3316156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf334…bdefbacked Angela Hill66c331.79$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.497159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…a55ebacked Angela Hill54c321.99$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3111652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1252…e6e0backed Jingnan Xiong64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe988…cf23backed Angela Hill36c312.5$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Jingnan Xiong65c307.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed Jingnan Xiong63c305.83$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Angela Hill36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed Angela Hill38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1863666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Angela Hill37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+86.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Angela Hill37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18913940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08db…cf71backed Jingnan Xiong44c294.73$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.593565.7%23 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Angela Hill71c288.68$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1337754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Angela Hill36c286.55$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2422334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0b…cdd7backed Jingnan Xiong63c281.06$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5341…2b42backed Jingnan Xiong63c277.78$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Jingnan Xiong37c271.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x767b…6512backed Jingnan Xiong64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b9…6a0cbacked Jingnan Xiong4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Jingnan Xiong64c234.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea1c…921bbacked Jingnan Xiong64c232.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.851258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Jingnan Xiong57c227.56$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Jingnan Xiong65c222.06$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.343839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Jingnan Xiong64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6cc…5421backed Jingnan Xiong64c171.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Jingnan Xiong63c163.02$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.71154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.