TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Boxing · resolved market

Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Manzielof Manziel, Menery
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Boxing
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf239…631fbacked Menery30c13,994$4,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,194.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Manziel77c5,746$4,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Menery21c5,271$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.682564%16 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+67.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9513…940fbacked Manziel69c2,875$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Manziel63c2,508$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Menery23c2,229$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Manziel76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…cc7ebacked Menery38c1,868$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Manziel73c1,444$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.581850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2259…4d92backed Manziel71c1,399$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Manziel80c1,328$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.681241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Manziel76c1,295$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Manziel58c1,267$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…f52abacked Manziel75c1,099$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf9…a4a8backed Menery31c1,049$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+123.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Manziel79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Menery21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.922479.2%19 W · 5 L+6.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+76.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Manziel73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Menery17c1,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Manziel76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2404942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Manziel68c920.68$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Manziel66c900$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3026100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Menery2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Menery20c747.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Menery18c674.12$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Menery33c672.43$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Manziel74c663.49$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Menery28c653$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf26c…ebe5backed Manziel69c652.87$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c2…8915backed Menery22c652.84$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09cd…31ebbacked Manziel78c639.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Menery30c627.83$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f5…27e9backed Menery34c591.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ce…9a79backed Menery20c580.6$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Menery21c531.87$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e2…c1a7backed Manziel51c524.03$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.084100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Manziel65c517.51$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437a…337abacked Manziel70c505$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990b…cacabacked Menery23c501.51$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Menery26c420$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Manziel72c411.44$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Manziel64c400$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fa…da93backed Menery25c398.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Manziel72c372.87$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.141172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Menery25c336.18$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b1…2379backed Manziel72c331.78$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Menery29c315$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Manziel63c302.33$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0c…cab8backed Manziel71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef6…eaa7backed Manziel69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1614…1301backed Menery24c275.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…ef07backed Manziel78c257.43$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdc…560bbacked Manziel78c256.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8886…c7d0backed Menery39c252.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…279fbacked Manziel78c248.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…c110backed Manziel78c247.69$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa23c…896abacked Menery29c239.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Manziel73c235.71$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ae…b5bbbacked Menery28c231.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…fe3dbacked Menery11c220.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Manziel70c214$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde64…a821backed Menery20c209$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3535…75b2backed Menery11c207.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed Manziel79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b9…a73abacked Manziel52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Manziel78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Manziel79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Manziel64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbede…bfa5backed Menery28c179.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Menery23c171.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ba…1259backed Menery24c167.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8190…fab5backed Manziel78c164$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08d8…a23bbacked Menery31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Menery17c160.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55458.9%4 W · 41 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Menery32c158.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbc…3077backed Menery22c156.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…c247backed Menery23c156.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…38e5backed Manziel77c152.06$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Manziel79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Manziel78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e12…7bd7backed Manziel78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf9…0930backed Manziel68c147.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0a…be95backed Manziel78c143$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc726…becdbacked Manziel68c142.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Menery33c132$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.474839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Manziel68c130$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Manziel77c129.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9a0…4458backed Menery26c129.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked Menery22c129.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Manziel79c126.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked Manziel77c126.95$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03bc…530cbacked Menery21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Menery25c114.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94820.8%10 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…5d28backed Menery30c113.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed Menery33c112.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed Manziel64c110$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…cce8backed Menery26c108$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…b24ebacked Manziel64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Manziel70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Manziel78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.